Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

Agree Israel is not in an easy place, if there was a God who had any say and who saw Jews as his/her chosen people that God would likely say clearly that Israel should never have been established where it was without establishing a Palestinian state with equal rights, as concretely at the same time. Agree totally with most all you said, including the outrage i felt and saw, in the press and in others, when Bush jr invaded Iraq and bombed it into smithereens.

"This is not over by a long shot. Israel has raised generations of Palestinians who will hate them forever and they will fight this over and over again."

Yes, Israel made a choice between having two independent states, and respecting the rights of each, or having an increasingly apartheid state as exists now. Which you wouldn't think could possibly last. Apartheid lost in South Africa. How long could it last in Israel.

And you are right if you feel fighting will go on. Likely anyway. See

Greater Israel: an Ongoing Expansion Plan for the Middle East and North Africa

by Ecaterina MATOI


Photo: Greater Israel”, according to the founding father of Zionism Theodore Herzl, is a Jewish State stretching “
from the Brook of Egypt to the Euphrates.

Related:

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[...]
In the 1980s, Israel was already a dynamic state, with new territories occupied after the 1967 war and maintained in the 1973 war, and with an ongoing settler colonialism project (Gluskin, 2018).
[...]
All these concepts appear to support/justify Israel’s regional expansion aspirations, and previous concepts like “barren”/” vacant” land. Although this book is a theoretization and probably author’s opinion, this type of opinion has the potential to move the discussion from the “territorial integrity or political independence of any state” (UN Charter article 2) to another area in which regions from sovereign states, be they strong or weak, are not marked as Effective National Territories, based on subjective definitions. Of course, this does not directly infringe upon territorial sovereignty of these countries, but the possibility of interpretation cannot be ruled out especially in this terminology setting, and in the context of political declarations of certain Israeli politicians related to Ottoman Palestine: Jordan may feel threatened, Egypt as well, and President Erdogan stated in May 2024: “…if this … state of Israel is not stopped, it will set its eyes on Anatolia with its delusion of a promised land…” (Middle East Monitor 05, 2024). Another important concept from this book is that of “equilibrium”, along with turbulence and world order, from a system perspective, that, again points to a “developmental approach”, mentioning Herbert Spencer’s “organic growth analogy” (Cohen, 2015, p. 59).

Yossi Sarid published in 2011 an opinion on Haaretz website, according to which the two traditional pillars of Israel’s occupation were history and security, and called the back-then newly added pillar “not a pillar but a snake”, arguing against the alleged appearance of what he called the need for “lebensraum” (Sarid, 2011). His statement related to the security dilemma that Israel faces was: “The second, security-based school of thought stipulates that we need virtually all the territories for self-defense” (Sarid, 2011). While it is not clear whether the author identifies with this statement or not, the reflection emphasizes on an argument that serves both the security of Israel and the Greater Israel expansionist cause.

The leitmotif of “new age” or “new era” continues to be employed in multiple instances. In Adrian Stein’s blog series (Stein 2, 2024), Mr. Stein explains that “Zionism 2.0” is set to establish “the foundation for a new emerging civilization centered and based in Israel, propelled by Israel’s culture, language and gifted people”. The scope is global, according to the author: “Zionism 2.0 seeks to alter and transform the existing material and economic basis of the world, and through these efforts give rise to a new global structure or civilization if you may”. Technological, scientific development is envisioned, along with the spread of start-ups.

Therefore, how is Greater Israel goal reflected in contemporary literature and media reports analyzed above? Probably the most important aspect is that it is not much different than it was at the beginning of 20th century, or the 1980s, from the geopolitical perspective. Adrian Stein utilizes the title “From the Euphrates to the Nile” (Stein 2, 2024), Saul Cohen insists on the same terminology that accommodated overtaking land by force and by defining characteristics for the so-called “new” ages. The theses that appear to drive the Greater Israel expansion appear to be connected to the notion of a dynamic state, in the sense of territorial expansion for Israel if one considers the security threat discuss above, and the dissolution of Arab states discussed in the Oded Yinon plan. All materials analyzed appear to have been state-centered, irrespective of their direction. The universalism character of geopolitical hypotheses appears to be rather inexistent and inconsistent from a possible replication perspective. Likewise, the universalism of claims related to a potential new global civilization centered in Israel is yet to be demonstrated. And even if it was demonstrated, there is no clear hint on how long such a civilization could potentially last.

The political discourse development as a tool in supporting greater Israel (Behnam, 2023) is reflected by the refinement of “hasbara” policy, i.e. the Civic Public Diplomacy. This is equated with “the control of Narrative as an Element of Strategy” by Ambassador Chas W. Freeman (Freeman, 2024), with “Art of Deception” by a TRT World article (TRT World, 2021), and with a “propaganda machine” by Sam Hamad (Hamad, 2023).
3. Potential geopolitical implications of Greater Israel project

Although not new, the Greater Israel project appears to receive renewed attention in the light of the most recent war from Gaza, that reportedly led to the death of more than 34,000 and wounding of over 78’000 Palestinians, and the prospect for a potential war in Lebanon.

This recent Gaza development appears to at least pause the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia, but should Israel pursue its Greater Israel project, whose maps match Herzl’s territorial demands and clearly hints at extending its territory in Saudi Arabia, including Neom and according to Avi Lipkin Mecca and Medina, the envisioned regional peace becomes an unclear concept. There is no long term, core concept identified in analyzed publications that hint at a possible restraint of Israel from expanding its territory. It is thus difficult to distinguish, based on analyzed data, between a potential strategic patience of Greater Israel planners – that could envision a longer timing for this project and a step-by-step approach, and a potential agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia along other neighbors, to form a sort of alliance/union with a map that the Israeli soldiers recently displayed. However, given the situation at this point in history, and the historic tendency of Israeli strategists towards a state-centered approach, the latter option is probably unlikely.

The regional geopolitical dynamics appear to be marked by various forms of conflict that hint towards an active Greater Israel project, a potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and an increasing confrontation between Iran and its allies and Israel, the US and their allies on the other hand. In this confrontation, Türkiye appears to play no significant role and Saudi Arabia appears to wait for a certain event to pick a direction. And this event would be reportedly the recognition (by Israel) of a Palestinian state.

Saul Cohen’s view was that global organizations tend to weaken state sovereignty. This state-centered approach was expressed, probably, from a geopolitical perspective that does not include the importance of trade. It must be however emphasized that Israel is relying particularly on the US, the UK, and other allies, rather than United Nations Security Council, to carry out its defense policy. Furthermore, the tensions derived from a potential arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court have resulted in a further distancing between Israel and international organizations.

The approach to Greater Israel project may determine various regional and global reactions. Until recently, the essentially grey line approach to the Occupied Palestinian Territories, which could be perceived as a long-term slow-pace settlement project, since it resulted in the increase of settlement units, along with what the media often calls Egyptian and Lebanese economic and financial “difficulties” have ensured a certain advancement of Israel outside its 1967 borders. However, although other successes were marked, like the recent Abraham Accords, it must also be emphasized that it was not able to maintain the occupation of Sinai peninsula or the puppet state it helped create and supported in Southern Lebanon back in the ‘80s. Likewise, although Syria is facing serious hardships, it did not disintegrate. Likewise, the deal that Ankara signed with Baghdad will probably increase security in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, rather than creating further potential for wider conflicts. From this perspective, the “shatterbelt” characteristic of this region appears to be a rather stable instability than an unstable one: no major geopolitical change has occurred so far and no border has been redrawn. Furthermore, states like Iran, Türkiye and Egypt have become very vigilant from this perspective, and Iraq appears to reemerge as a regional economic power that can catalyze regional power relations. These short-term regional tendencies appear to strengthen region’s capacity to react to a potential extension of Israel’s borders by force.

While Israel’s support in the US remains strong across the entire political spectrum, the political and economic costs of a potential broader war near Israel’s borders can rise for the traditional superpower. In the wider context of superpower confrontation paradigm, a generally increasing confrontational scene and a potential global arms race, whose alleged goals are self-defense, whatever the meaning is, American priorities may become more pronounced in this context. Whatever they might be.

A potential plan by Israel to become a trade hub/route connecting Europe to Asia, and to win leverage as a hydrocarbon supplier especially for Europe is facing challenges from more directions: China will probably remain a user of the existing Suez Canal. Probably India as well, unless it receives more economic and political incentives from the proponents of alternatives. Likewise, Türkiye is already an important hub for gas and oil pipelines and is emerging as a route for the Middle Corridor trade route as well. Hence, while Israel can offer alternatives to old and new trade routes, the same regionalism and multipolarity that Saul Cohen mentioned can lead to new economic development patterns that will demand Israel to imagine new, efficient regional policies, that could or could not rely on the same level of support from traditional security partners. Whether these potential new paradigms are compatible with the traditional and actual Greater Israel goal remains to be analyzed, primarily by Israel, its neighbours and its regional partners in the first instance.

4. Conclusions

This article aimed to characterize the “Greater Israel” concept from a geopolitical perspective. After analyzing classical and revisionist theories on geopolitics, four indicators were defined to assess the historical evolution of this term from the beginning of 20th century until present. The indicators were: the dynamic characteristic of a state, the (degree of) state-centered approach to geopolitics, universalism as a hypothesis in demands and negotiations, but also in political speech, and the (degree to which) political discourse is employed as a tool in implementing geopolitical goals, including Greater Israel project.

Three major instances of Israel’s foundation and development as a state were analyzed: the foundation negotiations carried out by Theodor Herzl and his supporters, the Oded Yinon plan and the 21st century geopolitical concepts presented by Saul Cohen and other writers. The data analyzed indicates a systematic, long-term, desire to achieve a Greater Israel that would stretch from Egypt to Iraq, potentially including regions from Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.

There is no clear indication that Israel would renounce this goal, or that it would compromise on Greater Israel project. However, the leitmotif that appears in the argumentation of Greater Israel project, i.e., the a perpetual “new” era/age, might indeed represent a reason for reflection. As the world is reportedly moving towards an end of big oil era, and trade routes multiply at global and regional level, new paradigm changes will be required for the traditional superpowers in order to peacefully compete with the emerging industrial and trade powers. And while Israel is enjoying autonomy and increases its stake in own self-protection, the importance of foreign support may still be a core component of its regional policy. When analyzing the Greater Israel project, one must consider whether a potential perpetual war state is compatible with aspirations towards a peace-time economic development, that is supposed to compete with new-era, fast-developing economic powers. Likewise, given the existing precarious security situation, it remains unclear what security guarantees can Israel and Arab countries can offer and ask to move towards a more predictable development.

[Insert: [...] Options seem to be either to live in peace for a time at least, or in a perpetual state of war.
Are the other countries going to willingly surrender to the Greater Israel aims?
Or could the aims be adjusted to help to bring more peace.
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