Sunday, January 05, 2025 1:22:12 PM
Is there counter-play against the impending dilution of the GSE commons?
Hard to believe that Mr. Ackman is publicly advocating for the Government exercising the warrants - a position grossly against his own economic interests. I've speculated that this is a ruse to help facilitate the release of the GSE's from conservatorship but it's hard to envision the benefit being worth the cost.
So is it possible that Mr. Ackman has some type of counter-position whereby he would benefit substantially from such dilution? If so, how do we get in on it?
If not, is such a thing possible under these circumstances? I believe that positions in stock options, puts and calls, will automatically adjust for stock splits and reverse splits, but I don't know about warrants. Might there be some other type of derivative instrument where we can profit from the warrants being exercised, if not screw the Government for doing so, or otherwise prevent the Government from exercising the warrants because it would be too costly? Any way that if such a thing did exist and was actively being played it would be available in the public record and we could check it out? Probably the first thing we would need to confirm is are the warrants being exercised before or after release from Conservatorship.
I'm thinking along the lines of the GameStop, where retail shareholders organized on a Reddit message board and engineered a massive short squeeze.
I know there's some pretty smart and experienced people on this board - any ideas guys? or do we just have to sit back and settle for what we get?
Again - so hard to believe Ackman would accept much less advocate for this level of dilution. Comments please.....
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