Biotech Values

[vinmantoo]

The HBV program ? Well, a hit and a miss. The miss never made it out of phase 1- discontinued quickly and cheaply. Their antiviral got a 4 log drop but is still lacking (in theory) one more antiviral to combine. I've almost stopped following HBV, but it seems to be a tough nut to crack- not an error or failure per se that other companies also didn't make. The fact that Enanta stopped developing seems a conscious risk/reward decision. I have no issue with that.

What I don't understand is why ENTA doesn't seem to have pushed harder or talked more repeatedly about partnering EDP-514. HBV is such a big market that surely there must be interested parties. Could it be that ENTA is making unrealistic demands?

BOTH RSV and the Covid program had troubles with enrolling people for trials due to covid itself. The sheltering and isolation stopped flu and RSV transmission. I don't see that as a failing by Luly. So far as Covid? Pfizer was a success because the bar was incredibly low. They were first and those who followed had a much higher bar to approval. Is this a failing by a CEO? I don't think so. I believe that the Enanta covid drug is far superior to Pfizers. It could be better than Shionogi's but that's pure speculation unless/until a phase 3 trial is run. Which today seems unlikely. As an investor that got in deeper due to covid, even I, a knucklehead of the first order knew it was going to be highly time sensitive and the clock might run out. IF it were so that Enanta created the best or second best Covid drug do I think they made a poor decision? No. It was, and could still be an opportunity even though today it looks like a bust.

The slow progress of EDP-235 for Covid was really a surprise to me, and one that really stings when I look back on it. I put some of the blame on ENTA management for that slow progress. Was it about not being willing to partner unless they had a mega-deal? Maybe, as there had to be a lot of interest at the time in a better drug than Paxlovid. Is it possible there is a future for EDP-235? I guess we can't rule it out if a new variant arises but I don't factors in Covid anymore for ENTA.

As far as RSV, ENTA gets a pass for now due to the lack of RSV during the shutdowns but the onus is on ENTA management now.

Call me stupid but I increased my shares of ENTA by 20% at $5.55 on Friday. Maybe it will just be for tax loss purposes in a month or two as ENTA is my biggest loser.