Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Expect volatility today and especially on Monday.

Vin & Marthambles- Yes I did expect volatility today but not this extreme. I expected good data to be released at obesity week (it was) and I thought the traders might just look at the top line weight loss numbers (they were great) and tolerability (that was fantastic too especially considering the aggressive titration schedule on the 80 and 100mg doses.)

I thought the traders might bid the stock up/shorts might get nervous and the stock might be up 10% and maybe close up a little or possibly even down some.

There was heavy trading pre- market of 3million+ shares and a lot of them were in the 90's up around 25% . Then the shares went to a low 64.21 to be back at 67.25 as I'm posting this message with 23 million shares traded. That is absolutely nuts given the stock traded between 64 and 90+ and there are only 111 million shares outstanding.

Clearly, the action in this stock is not retail only. There are now some big institutional players looking at this stock (JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage Sep 11).

I do think there is a debate about weather Viking can make VK2735 at scale competitively cause its a peptide large molecule. I'm going to repeat my earlier investment thesis on this point which is basically Brian Lian is not an idiot. He has a PhD in Organic Chemistry,, has a great business sense and would not waste resources on something that wasn't going to be competitive. ( He's also got 930 Million in the bank.)

Lots of people didn't think Elon could take on the automobile establishment. Lots of shorts there got creamed.

FWIW- A buyout may happen soon (within 1 year) or maybe Viking goes it alone (with a CDMO partner). I myself am playing the long game on VKTX.