Tornado Alley (PROG)

[janice shell]

“It’s a confirmation bias loop,” one Polymarket trader told me. “They’re edging Trump up a little bit, and then everyone’s talking about the momentum, like Elon Musk. Then they’re convincing themselves this is real. Then they’re going in and bidding him up more. And then there’s a new round of stories, and then they’re bidding him up more. It’s a cycle where they’re seeing the information that’s confirming what they previously thought, and it’s increasing their confidence, even though absolutely nothing is changing in the real world.”

I think that's true. Musk is very smart in some ways, and very dumb and naive in others.

The analysis by the guy on Twitter was very interesting, too.