Biotech Values

[dewophile]

GSK data from year 3 for their RSV vaccine is out today:

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-presents-positive-data-for-arexvy-its-rsv-vaccine-indicating-protection-over-three-rsv-seasons/

Today's results indicate that after a single dose of GSK’s RSV vaccine, cumulative efficacy over three full RSV seasons was clinically meaningful at 62.9% against RSV-LRTD (97.5% CI, 46.7-74.8, 48 of 12,468 vs 215 of 12,498) and 67.4% against severe RSV-LRTD (95% CI, 42.4-82.7, 15 of 12,468 vs 75 of 12,498) compared to placebo. In the third season, the vaccine’s efficacy was 48.0% against RSV-LRTD (95% CI, 8.7-72.0, 16 of 4,988 vs 61 of 10,031).

season 3 efficacy vs severe LRTD was actually lower at 43.3% vs 48% for LRTD overall, but a bit higher for those with a comorbidity at 57.8%

I'm not sure what to make of this bc there is no information here on protection with revaccination. At this point any revaccination schedule remains murky, and bc of this is a net negative. I don't think GSK can easily just increase the price of their vaccine now that they have some efficacy out to 3 years (versus 2) bc of the competitive environment and the year 3 protection is somewhat lower than years 1 and 2.
This might crimp hopes for a rebound in vaccine uptake next year although there could be some upward price pressure if this is ultimately deemed a 3 year vaccine
note the study is not designed to test efficacy beyond year 3
even if uptake is good we are now at 50% efficacy and dropping moving forward so any suggestion that vaccines will greatly eliminate the need for an antiviral is dropping until some data and plan/approval for revaccination emerges. The language in this PR suggests GSK doesn't see improvement in effiicacy with revaccination after 2 years or else I think they would have mentioned it in the PR. These data are being presented at a meeting today so perhaps there is more clarity soon.