Fannie/Freddie Politics Board (Politics Allowed~Non-Moderated)

[NeoSunTzu]

We are one month from election day ... some past history and late night ramblings (no attempt here at clear organized exposition - it is what it is) ... Trump was elected President on Nov 8, 2016 ... below are some FnF data points related to that time period

- over the month of October 2016 till election day (Nov. 8th) Fannie traded between $1.65 to $1.88 volume only exceeded 3 million shares on 5 trading days in that period - the vast majority of those days it was 1 to 2 million shares
- the day after Trump was elected (Nov 9th) Fannie traded 28 million shares and jumped from $1.71 to $1.97
- the next trading day Fannie traded 36 million shares and jumped to $2.52
- over the 2 weeks of trading days from election day Nov 8th to Nov 18th Fannie traded over 218 million shares and closed at $3.13 at the end of that period
- on Nov 30th Fannie traded 79 million shares and closed at $4.49, the next day it reached an intraday high of $5/per share, but closed at $4.22 (I believe the $5 intraday high was the highest it's traded since then)
- Fannie closed the year (2016) at $3.9 on 12/30
- then the lawsuit losses started to pile up

If Trump is elected I see no reason why we should not have significant gains; however, I think they will be more tempered this time for many reasons - one of which will be Calabria continuing to open his big mouth. What is different this time around?
- the lamberth jury decision (offset by all the other court losses which so far justify the feds actions - BUT these actions have been justified in the name of c'ship NOT final or perpetual confiscation)
- Calabria's egregious capital rule (again offset by the Federal Reserve's recent suggestion that the tier with home loans for bank capital should likely be lightened - obviously, that's a paraphrasing, but still extremely positive)
- at least the appearance of organically built significant capital within the companies (even though it increases the liquidation preference - which I believe was actually put in place, like the capital rule to prevent premature escape while keeping the Feds in control)
- the "new" business model built on the guarantee fee unburdened by the huge mortgage portfolios
- there are others, but this is a good start ...

I think most of these offset one another enough to keep the speculation rich and healthy so as to see a fairly significant rise with a Trump win, but traders in this are much more jaded than before (imo) and will likely be ready to take profits at the drop of a hat ... in any case if the cheaters prevail all bets are off as to where we go ....