Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

PFE/MRNA/NVAX—Street consensus sales for 2H24 COVID vaccines:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fda-approves-updated-covid-19-shots-pfizer-moderna-5d1d1229

Wall Street analysts expect roughly $2.5 billion in sales of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine in the second half of the year, according to FactSet, while they have penciled in $4.5 billion in sales for Pfizer’s version. From Novavax, they expect sales in the second half of just $210 million.

The $4.5B 2H24 figure above for PFE is consistent with PFE’s own guidance of $5.0B for the full year (#msg-174835917), since PFE sold $550M of COVID vaccines in 1H24.

MRNA has not given 2024 guidance for COVID-vaccine sales specifically; rather, MRNA guided to $3.0-$3.5B of sales for COVID and RSV vaccines combined (#msg-174849487). In 1H24, MRNA sold $350M of COVID vaccines and its RSV vaccine had not yet launched.