Well... Kosmos won the arbitration, but ... you also know that they pulled out of Harris county and that Total won the case on block 4 in arbitration as well. You also know that Kosmos IR said they're out of block 4.
But, given all of that...
Let's look at the facts....
According to you, you think Kosmos still thinks they have a claim on block 4, despite the 8k that pretty much said that ERHC kept block 4 with finality and despite the international caveat emptor on the block by ERHC. So, therefore, if we are honest here (and I have no reason to think that you would not be), we must also concede and admit that ERHC and Total also think they have a claim on block 4.
So it could be that there's an impasse with no conclusive anything regarding block 4 and who has the claim: ERHC and Total OR Kosmos.
So it could be that Sao Tome put the block up for bid for this reason, because it got tired of waiting for the impasse to be resolved (in addition to any tax issues). We know that Kosmos DID NOT bid on block 4 at all.
But, clearly, Shell would not bid on the block and win it if the block were contentious....UNLESS Shell spoke with Kosmos and ERHC and Total and is working to resolve the issue.
Clearly, Shell knows the value of block 4 and the source oil after looking at block 6 and Jaca 1, better than anyone else would.
So for Shell to step into the "quagmire" of ERHC/Total/Kosmos and potentially upset its partner Kosmos in the other blocks must mean that Shell thinks block 4 is well worth the hassle of untangling the quagmire....and clearly they're in process of doing exactly that.
So long as ERHC gets more than a few pennies a share and can issue a penny dividend and later get the JDZ assets sold to Total, I could be very happy when we add on top of that the short squeeze effect taking us into the dollars. And I think they will because clearly Kosmos values Block 4 for 17 cents and Oranto and xrimlinger value the adjacent block for 20 cents a share. And that's before Jaca-1, source oil, high oil prices, and Shell's interest in the block, which to Shell is clearly worth the hassle of dealing with all of this. Shell made its interest known AFTER ERHC"s international caveat emptor was issued. Hence, Shell is well aware of the quagmire it must untangle.
Whatever you'd like to smoke is fine with me...but the logic on this is very strong, and I challenge you poke holes or provide an alternative scenario.
Krombacher
