At this point in time I just don't see ERHC getting anything for block 4 simply because there is not enough interest to have a bidding war with any kind of urgency. November is like tomorrow now, and any interested parties would just let the clock run out and then deal directly with STP. ERHC has been a thorn in the side for everyone and now they can get rid of them by just waiting a few more months.
As far as shorts go, the only shortage I see is between the ears of certain individuals who have nothing else to hold onto other than vain imaginations. Have a nice day.