And when Trump has been on the ballot, he’s tended to perform better than polls predict.
After that the article cites the presidential elections in '16 & '20 which are completely irrelevant beginning with Trump's 'stop the steal' campaign and subsequent insurrection incitement, doc thefts and all of his other legal issues.
Additionally one can reasonably argue that the following election results had the subtext of Trump on the ballot because candidates and issues he supported were voted against.
Without Trump on the ballot in 2022, Democrats defied expectations of a “red wave” sweeping Republicans into power in Congress. Democrats added a seat to their Senate majority, while Republicans captured a four-seat majority in the House, a smaller margin than expected.
Polls in Washington’s Senate race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley showed a close race in the closing weeks, but Murray won by roughly 15 percentage points.
In 2023, Democrats retained control of the governor’s mansion in deep-red Kentucky and won a key Wisconsin Supreme Court race thanks in large part to abortion messaging.
Voters also voted to protect abortion rights in red states like Kansas and Ohio, and Democrats won special elections in the Pennsylvania state house and most recently in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, where Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), outperformed polls by roughly 4 percentage points.
“To me, the most significant electoral data out there is we keep winning elections,” Rosenberg said.
“It’s important to not rely on polls but to match it with what people are doing when they actually vote. When people go vote, Trump is underperforming public polling,” he added.
The flaw in that argument is Trump was not on the ballot in 2022.
And when Trump has been on the ballot, he’s tended to perform better than polls predict.
