Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Whalatane - The Viking trial you refence is the Venture phase 2 for the injectable form of VK2735. The injectable form of VK2735 is arguably the biggest driver/reason for the rumors surrounding VKTX. You are correct that dosing for the trial will be done soon or is already completed. (They announced completed enrollment in the Venture trial Oct 23rd so when I add 13 weeks, I get Monday Jan 22nd. Add six weeks for top line interpretation and you get Mar 4th so I believe management has been conservative when they said this trial (ph 2 Venture) will readout the topline data in the 1st half of 24.

The Oral form of VK2735 in the phase 1 study should read out in the 1st q according to management. That would mean the oral ph1 trial will readout before the injectable phase 2 Venture trial . As background, the oral phase 1 study arm was initiated Mar 28th, 2023 but had a sequential cohort design which is making it take so long. (I believe the design was that one cohort needed to be completed before the dose was selected in the next cohort ) The 4th q earnings is coming Feb 7th and the data could be released then.

Viking also should be working to finalize 52 week biospy confirmed fibrosis data on their NASH compound VK2809. They completed enrollment on that study Jan 9th, 2023, so 52 week dosing should have been completed on that study already with data being analyzed now. Management again conservatively guided to the NASH data being read out 1st half 2024. (Early 2nd q is likely though)

All in all there is a real lot going on for such a small company. These are all market moving events and expect volatility especially given the high short position. I suspect buyout possibilities are being discussed with multiple interested parties and some leakage is possible or people are just putting 2 and 2 together.

I don't expect a buyout will happen until after all three of these trials readout. Since, they will all likely readout in the next few months, it puts any buyout possibility somewhere between April and June at the earliest. (But you never know for sure…)