Fannie Mae (FNMA)

[LuLeVan]

I have no doubt that Fannie and Freddie stock prices (all classes) will rise with Trump's election chances.

But I very much doubt that a release under Trump - which so many here are hoping for - will be accompanied by a write-down of the SPS. Even under Trump, commons are at risk of severe dilution from an SPS-to-common conversion. After all, he wrote in his famous letter that he wants to get the maximum out of this deal for taxpayers. Trump will not get the maximum if he settles for just the warrant exercise.

So if commons rise in expectation of a Trump victory, the 400$ pipe dream could turn into a below 10 cent nightmare.

You don’t think people weren’t here when trump unexpectedly won and these jumped like 3+ dollars with zero announcement from anyone? If there is an official Treasury announcement after hours stating these are being positioned for a release these are going past 5 easy and staying there.

I think all FnF stocks will be halted for a few days (maybe even weeks) after this announcement. When trading resumes, the legacy commons will no longer exist. You'll find the newco commons (FNM, FMC) in your brokerage account. And the number of shares will be reduced according to the reverse split that will follow the inevitable dilution (even the warrant exercise would cause dilution).