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Re: FS post# 17260

Tuesday, 11/11/2003 6:36:04 PM

Tuesday, November 11, 2003 6:36:04 PM

Post# of 98356
FS, I only post here - I can't afford the time to follow more than one set of boards.

However, as an option trader myself, purchasing Nov 17s today seems like an overly aggressive move. There are only 8 trading days for the stock to make up that 38c plus the admission fee. I'm showing an ask of 50c, so he needs to make up 88c in share price to break even (based on today's closing prices, his price may be different).

In real money, 1000 * 100 * 0.50 = $50,000 that he risked. His break-even point reflects a stock price of $17.50 at expiration, he doubles his money at $18.

I won't play that game - it is pretty near day trading. I prefer positions that have 2 or 3 months to develope (even though I may take a profit way before then).

Here is the quandry for anyone wanting to take such a risk: The stock needs a big runup based on a huge market spike (unlikely) or unanticipated good news for AMD. Something on the scale of the upcoming Sun announcement, except we all know about that one & it is priced in already.

(The bid is at 25c, so he would be burned for half his money if he sells now. Not a pleasent option.)

The odds are against profit for that trade, but I wish him luck anyhow.
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  • 5Y
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