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Saturday, December 16, 2023 3:59:56 PM
I don't see how you can figure common shares have no value. They can be diluted, but I do not believe they can be wiped out after continuing to trade the last 15 years during conservatorship. If they were going to wipe shareholders it would have been done when this all went down. Speaking towards dilution in my mind the worst case scenario is warrants getting exercised and in a deal to keep future C-suite from suing the government for illegal taking (which all court cases have said the company itself would need to file suit not shareholders/investors which makes 0 sense when government is responsible for these hires and wouldn't hire someone to sue them) and writing down liq pref and considering SPs paid in full which would leave the government with a hefty follow up profit to the $100B they already received from networth sweep. At $25/share with 6B shares outstanding that puts P/E likely around 10-12 which seems reasonable given how the last 15 years has gone. Which would mean probably another $180B back to the government once they sell their interest in both fannie and freddie. Total profit being nearly $300B with saga all wrapped up and FF both on the most stable footing of all time with ATH cash reserves. Seems like everyone would win with P dividends turned back on and shortly following they can pay dividends to C as well.
I think Cs need to be shown value for their wait otherwise shareholders will put in board/C-suite in that will file the lawsuits the second they are free. As we all know there is a lot of intricacy with how the money was moved and if part is found to be illegal it all becomes null and void at which point all money taken from NWS would then have to be returned which would be a disaster for treasury/FHFA.
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