IMO this is all going to be very simple.
Libor gets settled. Smart board says FDIC gets $400B. Of that $80-100B goes to the Wamu escrows. I don't think we will see anywhere near that amount. I say the FDIC gets $100B. Wamu gets $10-20B.
Then once Libor is done the asset money can be distributed. The junior bonds will be paid by JPM. The asset valuation and payment for the bank could be enormous. But we just don't know and can only guess how much that will be. And no, JPM did not get it all for $1.88B...enough of that silly talk.
I say this all starts to happen by EOY.
It all hinges on Libor, the ongoing litigation the FDIC referred to 5 yrs ago. My fear has always been the corruption of the banks, this country, and the world.
Our trump card is the hedge fund involvement and to a lesser extent the UWs. But they want to get paid. For those who think they took payment under the table...uh...no! Could never happen. And for those who think they just threw in the towel in 2012 and walked away.....uh....no again!
So something is coming. My intuition says this will all play out on the next 2-4 months. Remember, this administration needs an injection of money into the economy desperately. So there you have it.
AIMHO.
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