Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

AMRK

If it is that lumpy, because to me q1 came out of nowhere, than this stock doesn't deserve a PE more than 5-6 max. And even if earnings were $4.50 this year, which seems like a stretch at this point, because I wouldn't be surprised if q2 was worse than q1, but doubt it will be much better. a 5 pe gets us to $22.50 a 6 pe gets us to $27. Hence I feel unless the stock hits like the mid teens because it gets so beat up over the next 7 weeks, can't say I feel there is much upside over the next 6 months from current prices, and there could be significant downside with tax selling over the next 7 weeks. To me it was a easy decision to sell, (1) Gives me another tax loss (2) I think earnings will be possiby lower than $4.50, and what in the world do you pay for that types of volitility in earnings the answer is a low multiple, hence 5 pe is more than enough. So If anything I think selling in the 24's and 25's might be selling at fv if your optimistic, and above FV if your not. I'm not. Plus I can't get over GP %,whether it is a company or industry wide issue, it is a major issue to have those type of declines when your such a low margin business to begin with. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.