Sunday, October 08, 2023 10:28:59 PM
Strong presentation and Bonnie was in better spirits than the last time we spoke. They're def looking forward to TH5 but cautioned against thinking TH5 will be some massive revelation for them. Their share of data centers will grow over time, not all of a sudden. CRDO didn't lose MSFT to SEV or ACC. They were benefiting from a 56G specific tech issue that didn't repeat for 112G. So, a temporary gain (and loss) in the course of a still-positive overall trend for CRDO. Their losses to ACC over time may not kill their absolute growth.
While we wait for TH5, Bonnie confirmed my belief that she wouldn't have raised $$$ without an immediate use for the $$$. The obvious implication is that the relationship announced in June is about to ramp up. It's a substantial win, but has a long lead time (in terms of orders and payments), so it took time to get to this point and now requires a cash cushion IMHO.
Competitively, she def gave me the impression that Future was right about SEV helping to "create" competition. This makes sense because customers demand second sources of their technology, so having at a LITTLE competition is beneficial to SEV. But, to be clear, SEV is the only volume producer out there and Bonnie said that's an advantage. Also, Tencent (which enabled that volume production) is very picky, so picking SEV lent credibility to SEV, even though CRX hasn't been very active.
Hope that helps.
While we wait for TH5, Bonnie confirmed my belief that she wouldn't have raised $$$ without an immediate use for the $$$. The obvious implication is that the relationship announced in June is about to ramp up. It's a substantial win, but has a long lead time (in terms of orders and payments), so it took time to get to this point and now requires a cash cushion IMHO.
Competitively, she def gave me the impression that Future was right about SEV helping to "create" competition. This makes sense because customers demand second sources of their technology, so having at a LITTLE competition is beneficial to SEV. But, to be clear, SEV is the only volume producer out there and Bonnie said that's an advantage. Also, Tencent (which enabled that volume production) is very picky, so picking SEV lent credibility to SEV, even though CRX hasn't been very active.
Hope that helps.
Bullish
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