Tuesday, October 03, 2023 12:31:08 PM
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/new-mexico-adult-use-marijuana-sales-cross-half-billion-dollar-mark-as-latest-monthly-sales-narrowly-miss-record/
As the article mentions rec baskets down further than med despite near record overall. 1,000+ dispensaries is having a deleterious effect on same store sales --of course. If they continue to put up a new location here and there (and it appears that is continuing to happen despite our frenzied worries) they will grab market share and end up holding much more while the number of competitors retraces. This month only showed a 1% retrace for statewide retail licenses.
Thoughts: I imagine many decided to stay the course with the advent of possible favorable Federal legislative and executive action. In a few more months the decisions will be based on business fundamentals instead, and as such I do expect an increase in closing stores where those not vertically integrated to the extent necessary will be squeezed out as has already occurred in Colorado and other more mature and fully competitive markets. Let's recall what Schwazze was built to do and their model from the grocery biz. We are seeing this in real time and this is a normal part of the business cycle. What isn't normal is the governments intransience to the point of taxing what they deem illegal in a legal sense. I don't think they (Schwazze) are going to fail, rather quite the opposite and do quite well in their markets at and in spite of the expense to others. Consolidation has risks of course, but while this economy is adding risk (difficulty)
Finally, I also project some large moves ahead as shoring up their markets by merger v. hostile acquisition where an accommodation in both shared opportunity and cost reductions are perceived. In sum, I think another similar sized company deal will be announced before year end.
As the article mentions rec baskets down further than med despite near record overall. 1,000+ dispensaries is having a deleterious effect on same store sales --of course. If they continue to put up a new location here and there (and it appears that is continuing to happen despite our frenzied worries) they will grab market share and end up holding much more while the number of competitors retraces. This month only showed a 1% retrace for statewide retail licenses.
Thoughts: I imagine many decided to stay the course with the advent of possible favorable Federal legislative and executive action. In a few more months the decisions will be based on business fundamentals instead, and as such I do expect an increase in closing stores where those not vertically integrated to the extent necessary will be squeezed out as has already occurred in Colorado and other more mature and fully competitive markets. Let's recall what Schwazze was built to do and their model from the grocery biz. We are seeing this in real time and this is a normal part of the business cycle. What isn't normal is the governments intransience to the point of taxing what they deem illegal in a legal sense. I don't think they (Schwazze) are going to fail, rather quite the opposite and do quite well in their markets at and in spite of the expense to others. Consolidation has risks of course, but while this economy is adding risk (difficulty)
Finally, I also project some large moves ahead as shoring up their markets by merger v. hostile acquisition where an accommodation in both shared opportunity and cost reductions are perceived. In sum, I think another similar sized company deal will be announced before year end.
Recent SHWZ News
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/09/2025 10:11:45 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/14/2025 12:56:32 PM
- Schwazze Reaches Agreement to Restructure its Balance Sheet and Portfolio of Assets • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 10/14/2025 12:30:00 PM
