Toro Company (TTC)

[56Chevy]

My bearish opinion isn't specifically about Toro [TCC] so much as it is the entire lawn care industry as a whole.

Take the commercial side of the house first. Toro is a highly recognizable and respected name in the professional lawn care industry ..but it's my guess they (and their competitors) have seen their best days. I think we're seeing the early cracks in the foundation. Lawn care isn't what it used to be.

Take Golf and the subsequent lawn care the sport entails as an example which unquestionably makes up 85% of their customer base. Golf has been on the decline for a number of years now. Fewer and fewer young people are playing the sport. When was the last time you had to call ahead or reserve a Tee time!? And most of the guys you see still out there are over 60.
Country club housing projects are a thing of the past due to 1) the premium cost of space and land a golf course requires 2) the water and fertilizer requirements it takes to maintain a pristine course and 3) the high cost of HOA fees associated with living on a golf course. They simply cannot make it private. They need the public to even hope to break even.

It's problematic.

It's my contention is - as Golf goes.. so goes Toro (and it's competitors).

I look for a slow decay of their business and industry overall. Selling to the Res market can't possibly make up for the commercial losses. Not only that but the high cost of water is a problem for homeowners as well. They're not putting in large lawns cause they can't afford them.