keep in mind that the hydrogen refueling network is Nikola's end goal Oct. 27, 2020
Russell said he’s been studying Toyota’s success for two decades. “Some of the smartest-led organizations in the world are pursuing hydrogen-fueled vehicles,” he said. The fact that “some of them are also working on hydrogen infrastructure is a validation of Nikola's plan.”
Nikola and General Motors
The upstart, Phoenix-based Nikola made a splash this year by arranging a deal to go public and reaching a tentative manufacturing and technology partnership with GM. The startup has promised to deliver two hydrogen-fueled heavy-duty trucks, the Nikola Two and the Tre, within the next few years. Nikola founder Trevor Milton predicted to USA TODAY in 2017 that diesel trucks would no longer be available for sale within 10 years.
But the company has faced increasing skepticism in recent months amid questions about the legitimacy of its plans, leading to concerns that it may not finalize its deal with GM, which is up in the air while negotiators rework their deal.
Short-seller Hindenburg Research published a report accusing Milton of orchestrating an “intricate fraud” with the company, saying that many of its claims were exaggerated or purposely misleading.
Soon after the report, Milton, who has denied those accusations, left the company, which is now facing multiple investigations by the federal government, including one by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The next Tesla?
Despite its troubles, Nikola’s emergence has reminded automotive industry observers of how Tesla exploded onto the automotive scene more than a decade ago, promising new electric-vehicle technology and pledging to revolutionize transportation.
Skepticism about Tesla eventually gave way to a recognition that CEO Elon Musk’s penchant for bombastic proclamations on social media did not change the fact that Tesla’s design and engineering prowess was legitimate. Tesla is now the world’s most valuable automaker in terms of total value on the stock market.
But can Nikola replicate that model for success?
Nikola CEO Mark Russell, who has been charged with helping to stabilize the company following Milton’s exit, said Nikola’s model of installing hydrogen pumps for customers, selling them the fuel and leasing them the truck as one complete package will help the company prevail.
He told USA TODAY that Nikola has “the potential to show the world that hydrogen can be a cost-effective fuel for long-haul trucking” and the company will “prove that in the next several years.”
But Nikola’s success may be predicated on whether it can seal the deal with GM or find an alternative manufacturing partner.
“We don’t have any ambition of trying to do everything ourselves,” Russell said. “We’re taking the path of partnerships.”
If Nikola is successful, that could help popularize hydrogen trucks, which would be “good for everyone,” Toyota’s Lund said.
But “our strategy is different,” Lund said. “They’ve been outspoken about what they’re going to do. Our culture is to explain to you what we’ve done.”
Russell said he’s been studying Toyota’s success for two decades. “Some of the smartest-led organizations in the world are pursuing hydrogen-fueled vehicles,” he said. The fact that “some of them are also working on hydrogen infrastructure is a validation of Nikola's plan.” Why now?
For years, the joke in the automotive industry has been that hydrogen cars are always 10 years out – but a decade passes, and they’re still 10 years out. Put frankly, hydrogen cars simply haven’t yet made a dent.
So what makes hydrogen so much more promising for trucking than for passenger cars?
Quite simply, it’s fueling infrastructure. Trucking companies and shippers can plot out their fueling plans by installing hydrogen fuel stations along fixed shipping routes, usually locating them at their regular stops or vehicle maintenance areas. That way truckers don’t have to hunt for hydrogen fuel in the wild, which is effectively impossible to find right now except for a cluster in California.
“You know where to put the stations,” Lund said. “We already see the truck routes.”
But Lund argued that traditional fuel stations that currently sell gasoline and diesel will eventually find it enticing enough to install hydrogen tanks too.
“We already have a fueling infrastructure throughout the world,” he said. “It’s just a matter of changing it out. It all depends on the adoption rate.”
Some remain skeptical, particularly about Nikola.
Hydrogen is simply still too expensive for most shippers to justify investing in fuel cell trucks, said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrial materials and energy at investment researcher Third Bridge.
The average price of hydrogen for vehicles in California was $16.51 per kilogram, according to a 2019 government report. But the price is dropping quickly – and Nikola’s Russell said the company can deliver hydrogen for $2.50 per kilogram, which he said is about equivalent in energy to a gallon of diesel fuel.
Government mandates like California’s recent announcement that it’s banning gas-powered vehicles by 2035 will also help drive the costs lower, Russell said.
Startup Nikola Bets Hydrogen Will Finally Break Through With Big Rigs Apr 14, 2019,09:30am EDT
For battery cars, it’s relatively simple to create public charging infrastructure to allow drivers to power up when parked, but even a fast charge can take 30 minutes or more. Fuel-cell cars can be refueled in about the same amount of time as those using gasoline, though the number of public stations dispensing compressed hydrogen gas in California, which has the most, is just 37 currently, clustered in the Bay Area, Los Angeles and Orange County and down to San Diego. Dozens more are planned, but like the extensive Supercharger network Musk has built up for Tesla owners, Nikola’s 700-station goal would be a game-changer for cross-country travel.
“If there’s suddenly this expansion of hydrogen infrastructure across the U.S., it’s a big deal,” said Craig Scott, national manager for Toyota’s U.S. advanced technologies group. “It would be a very good thing to have more hydrogen stations opening up–more is more.”
Toyota has sold Mirai hydrogen sedans in California and Japan for the past few years, and operates two fuel-cell trucks at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, with more on the way. It’s even building a hydrogen plant at the ports, making the fuel from waste material, to power its fleet. Nikola intends to build 700 fuel stations across the U.S. over the next decade, making zero-emission ... [+]Nikola Motor
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