Ex-RB Short Term Traders

[Naztrader]

Weekly Momentum, Sentiment, Strength & Technical Indexes........

Spurred by strong economic news and an upbeat earnings report from Cisco, the market pushed higher early in the week as the majority of the major indexes posted new recovery highs. But not even a favorable job report could fuel the fire as the DJIA sold off on Friday but ended the week in positive ground. For the week the DJIA gained 8 points (+0.08%) and closed at 9809. The NASDAQ fared much better as it gained 38 points (+1.97%) and closed at 1970. For the year the DJIA is up 17.7% while the NASDAQ has gained 44.5%.

Momentum Index: The Momentum Index is positive at +5. Breadth continued to be positive as the NYSE Advance/Decline line gained 2365 units for the week while the number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week highs, in triple-digits all week, outpaced the new lows on all five trading days. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average improved to 88.7%, from 88.1%, while those above their 50-day rose to 73.1% from 69.7%.

Sentiment Index: The Sentiment Index slipped to a bearish -1 down one notch from last week's neutral 0 reading. VIX was steady at 16.74 vs. 16.33, continuing to reflect the lack of fear in the options pit. Readings under 20 are regarded as bearish. The percentage of bullish investment advisors remains bearish at 56.3%, slipping a touch from last week's 57.4% reading. The CBOE index put/call ratio is neutral at 1.48, up from 1.27. For the week ending 11/05/03, U.S. equity mutual funds had outflows of $854 million compared to inflows of $2.2 billion the previous week.

Strength Indexes: Despite the market's gains last week, all three of the Strength Indexes lost ground. The percentage of Dow (DIA) stocks under accumulation fell to 60.0 from 66.7. The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) dropped to 52.0 from 65.0 while the S&P-100 (OEX) fell to 49.5 from 56.6. Readings under 50.0 indicate that the majority of the stocks in the index are under distribution, a short-term bearish condition.

TECHNICAL OPINION - DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS - 11/07/2003

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 9612.13 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is slightly overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (74.73). The CandleStick chart has formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern which suggests sellers are putting pressure on the index, which could drive the index lower for the short-term.

Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the index is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 9686.08 and 9500. If the index breaks down through support at 9686.08 then it will probably continue lower to 9500. The index will meet resistance at 9850.01 and 10200. If the index breaks up through resistance at 9850.01 then it will probably continue higher to 10200. The 200-day moving average is at 8858.10. This will also act as support. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (80.62).

TECHNICAL OPINION - NASDAQ COMPOSITE - 11/07/2003

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD/SELL
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 1889.96 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (82.53). The CandleStick chart has formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern which suggests sellers are putting pressure on the index, which could drive the index lower for the short-term.

Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the index (COMP) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 1966.87 and 1857.39. If the index breaks down through support at 1966.87 then it will probably continue lower to 1857.39. The index will meet resistance at 1992.31 and 2100. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1992.31 then it will probably continue higher to 2100. The 200-day moving average is at 1610.56. This will also act as support. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (85.60).

TECHNICAL OPINION - S&P 500 ($INX) - 11/07/2003

Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
On a short-term technical basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the index is above its 50-day moving average at 1031.59 which also confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The index is slightly overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (74.65).

Long Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
On a long-term technical basis, the index ($INX) is trading above its 200-day moving average which implies it is in a positive trend.

The index has support at 1040.29 and 983.57. If the index breaks down through support at 1040.29 then it will probably continue lower to 983.57. The index will meet resistance at 1053.79 and 1185.51. If the index breaks up through resistance at 1053.79 then it will probably continue higher to 1185.51. The 200-day moving average is at 950.54. This will also act as support. The index is extremely overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (80.27).



Regards,



Naz