I haven't been following the data closely so really in no position to handicap odds of an AA. These are first line patients not prior failures so the bar should be higher. It might be early to get a sense of trend in OS, but if there is one favoring the tx arm that could tip the balance but I really don't know the time frames in this patient population to be honest.
MRNA likes to talk a big game
They have a large market cap to support! So far they have been able to back it up for the most part. I do think the level of confidence they project for a 3 in 1 vax for covid flu and rsv does put then in the "talk a big game" category (i.e. overly confident)