There is just one slight mistake. You wrote (bold by me):
- That works out to UST getting $216b (92.5% * 200b equity value) in value and fannie JPS getting $15b (7.5% * 200b equity value which is ~80% recovery for fannie JPS).
Correct is (IMHO):
- That works out to UST getting $185b (92.5% * 200b equity value) in value and fannie JPS getting $15b (7.5% * 200b equity value which is ~80% recovery for fannie JPS).
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Total future worth of Fannie in 3 to 4 years would be $200b, of which UST gets $185b, Fannie-JPS get $15b (21% haircut), and commons get almost nothing.