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[fourdint]

Ok, I'll go into inflation further as that is the issue. In a nutshell, in lay terms inflation occures when the value/supply of money (for number of reasons) decreases and thus prices go up. The big question is what is cause? Economists classify as cost push inflation and demand push inflation (and a subset stagflation).

Demand push is where the demand for goods is greater than supply where unemployment is low and economy is booming. It can be argued supply chain issues and lockdown, in part, caused this inflation by raising scarcity. This seems to be inflation they are fighting. As long as unemployment is below full employment (around 6%) demand remains high cuz got money to buy. So either supply increases or demand has to decrease but gov tries to decrease demand by cooling the economy tightening money supply (interest rates and higher bank reserves which decreases money supply).

Cost push, simply put, the cost to produce goes up. This can be wage push (higher wages means cost to produce goes up -- labor is usually the majority of costs). But other costs like energy, raw materials, cost to borrow each has effect. Getting supply cost down is tough, face it, nobody or entity (business) likes giving up income. Price controls don't work because they don't address costs which then means subsidies which hardly ever goes away. Gov could allow pumping more oil to bring down energy costs but wont. Thus,, because of relationship of supply and demand, gov can usually just effect demand so where concentration is, but this is a double bladed swords or a ballancing act (cut the ecconomy to cut inflation) so it means bringing on recessionary presures. Companies tighten their belts to decrease costs but this can also means less supply ... higher interest means means less borrowing and higher concentration on more profitable areas--net decrease in economy.

One last area that's needs a look is gov spending. It's a component of GDP for a reason. Gov spending adds to money supply. Your not going to convince Gov to pull back, but the need too. Printing money brings down the value of dollar and certainly adds to inflation. I believe this is major cause of inflation we have but certainly MMT would disagree -- certainly doesn't mean they are right!

So the point of me bring this up is to say inflation and impacts are far from over and i would say they havent or barely started. The Fed is still applying the breaks and will continue till the recession hits along with everything that comes along with it. The only question is if you believe it will be a soft landing.

That doesn't mean stocks go up or down cuz they'll certainly do both. But I don't see a continuous climb out till we climb out of the hole we're in ... 2024?