May be the early bird. I’m ok with it. Will be watching the charts.
I agree with UVIX positioning on pullbacks. Hate to post all the bad news below the Fed and Big Banks have caused to the country. It is utterly disgusting what these criminals are doing to destroy so many families.
Jeffrey P. Snider
@JeffSnider_AIP ·
Markets went off and running (the wrong way) once the JOLTS data was released, but it was not really about JOLTS. Rather how there is no faith in the economy, no faith in the Fed or its judgements and complete confidence in fragile monetary system.
Markets went off and running (the wrong way) once the JOLTS data was released, but it was not really about JOLTS. Rather how there is no faith in the economy, no faith in the Fed or its judgements and complete confidence in fragile monetary system. https://t.co/EqLbULE8OOpic.twitter.com/Zy2tcBFEgd
For all those (like Janet Yellen) who like to point to the low unemployment rate as a sort of defense against the possibility of recession, the lowest unemployment rate in modern history was recorded in the month just before a recession began.
For all those (like Janet Yellen) who like to point to the low unemployment rate as a sort of defense against the possibility of recession, the lowest unemployment rate in modern history was recorded in the month just before a recession began. https://t.co/EqLbULE8OOpic.twitter.com/qpkMO4Yl3L
Major moves all over the markets today. The avalanche of layoffs and recession draws closer and closer, especially since last month's monetary disruption isn't over with by a long shot. Curves are just as heavily inverted as last month
Major moves all over the markets today. The avalanche of layoffs and recession draws closer and closer, especially since last month's monetary disruption isn't over with by a long shot. Curves are just as heavily inverted as last month.https://t.co/EqLbULE8OO
ISM headline 46.3 lowest since May '20. Outside '20, lowest since '09. That level would've been lower than all but the worst months of Great "Recession", too, Sept '08 and after.
Solidly in recession territory even before the fallout from last month.
ISM headline 46.3 lowest since May '20. Outside '20, lowest since '09. That level would've been lower than all but the worst months of Great "Recession", too, Sept '08 and after.
ADP payroll # for Mar was less than 150k. It's pretty clear that employment growth has slowed down, even the BLS data agrees. This suggests businesses are already defensive even before we get to the fallout from March raising prospects for mass layoffs one that happens.
ADP payroll # for Mar was less than 150k. It's pretty clear that employment growth has slowed down, even the BLS data agrees. This suggests businesses are already defensive even before we get to the fallout from March raising prospects for mass layoffs one that happens. pic.twitter.com/Xn6x52xmxM
@JeffSnider_AIP · 3h ISM NM's new order index crashed by 10 pts to 2d lowest since 2020. Another sign that March events might have already produced negative effects leading to what might be a nasty recession (just like curves had been pricing for months, so there's that).
ISM NM's new order index crashed by 10 pts to 2d lowest since 2020. Another sign that March events might have already produced negative effects leading to what might be a nasty recession (just like curves had been pricing for months, so there's that). pic.twitter.com/HkvvjFjmGA
@JeffSnider_AIP · 3h There is "bad steepening" in German just like USTs. This is a solid sign that the crisis has finally reached its final stage, the point when it forces rates lower and central banks to react to it.
There is "bad steepening" in German just like USTs. This is a solid sign that the crisis has finally reached its final stage, the point when it forces rates lower and central banks to react to it.https://t.co/bd6bY0X5N8pic.twitter.com/cCfUQFwiZV
After almost a month, the global markets haven't improved. Curves everywhere are still telling there's more big problems to come. Credit Suisse wasn't the end of the crisis, just confirming what market participants have been expecting since last fall.
After almost a month, the global markets haven't improved. Curves everywhere are still telling there's more big problems to come. Credit Suisse wasn't the end of the crisis, just confirming what market participants have been expecting since last fall.https://t.co/bd6bY0X5N8pic.twitter.com/WnmolBAy4D
@JeffSnider_AIP · 3h Markets hedged right now as if March is just the start. Why? Part of it has to do with why the LCR is such a worthless number, how liquidity in practice is nothing like regulators imagine. There are systemic issues including collateral calls.
Markets hedged right now as if March is just the start. Why? Part of it has to do with why the LCR is such a worthless number, how liquidity in practice is nothing like regulators imagine. There are systemic issues including collateral calls.https://t.co/bd6bY0X5N8pic.twitter.com/U0YFz0qNlM
@JeffSnider_AIP · 3h Credit Suisse's LCR was absolutely magnificent, near to 150% by its final week. Yet, the Swiss government insists the bank was toast on Friday March 17. Something else was (is) going on beside the uselessness of the LCR.
Credit Suisse's LCR was absolutely magnificent, near to 150% by its final week. Yet, the Swiss government insists the bank was toast on Friday March 17. Something else was (is) going on beside the uselessness of the LCR.https://t.co/bd6bY0X5N8pic.twitter.com/XbZOLg6Xfv
@JeffSnider_AIP · 16h Now this scramble for collateral is...something else. And it has become more frequent maybe even a little too common since mid-March. Already you can tell there's a correlation with conditions that are beyond not good.
"Regular" scramble early morning then worse as US day starts
Now this scramble for collateral is...something else. And it has become more frequent maybe even a little too common since mid-March. Already you can tell there's a correlation with conditions that are beyond not good.
@JeffSnider_AIP · Apr 4 The biggest decline (by pct) in factory orders in the US is for future production of consumer goods. That's not a good sign and shows that retailers complaining about weakness in consumer spending are acting on those complaints
The biggest decline (by pct) in factory orders in the US is for future production of consumer goods. That's not a good sign and shows that retailers complaining about weakness in consumer spending are acting on those complaints. pic.twitter.com/fghZTYMtDs
@JeffSnider_AIP · Apr 4 Factory orders continue to decline just the way PMIs have been indicating. The inventory cycle is still in its earliest stage where retailers/wholesalers are only make minor adjustments to ordering hoping that it all turns around soon (spoiler: it never does).
Factory orders continue to decline just the way PMIs have been indicating. The inventory cycle is still in its earliest stage where retailers/wholesalers are only make minor adjustments to ordering hoping that it all turns around soon (spoiler: it never does). pic.twitter.com/OyMxg8U5Vu
@JeffSnider_AIP · Apr 4 JOLTS hiring has slowed down to the slowest since May 2020. With job openings down big in Jan/Feb, along with hiring back to 2019 levels it raises the chances companies were already becoming defensive even before March.
JOLTS hiring has slowed down to the slowest since May 2020. With job openings down big in Jan/Feb, along with hiring back to 2019 levels it raises the chances companies were already becoming defensive even before March. https://t.co/EqLbULE8OOpic.twitter.com/2txphkKrqY
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