Biotech Values

[dewophile]

OK thanks I found the writeup:

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/corporate-strategy-snippets/johnson-johnson-quits-rsv-while-its-behind

Not all analysts are convinced the opportunity is as big as GSK and Pfizer have advertised. Perhaps J&J agrees.

It will be interesting to see this market because estimates are all over the place and even the pharmas have changed their tune of late. GSK felt it would be a market that takes time to build - few people outside the medical field heard of RSV. So while there are 100M or so older adults and 2/3 are regular vaccine customers, it would be a slower multi year build. However I don't know of many people who now haven't heard of RSV in light of the recent "tripledemic". My friend's kid just had RSV, and when I asked why she was tested mom (also an MD) said their pediatricians are now running triple screens in everyone. That is bullish for not just the RSV vaccine market to build awareness, but the RSV thearpeutic space as well (I posted about this visa vie ENTA a year or two ago).
PFE has said of late they think they will get 2B, GSK said in years past 5B is the total size of the market, but if PFE and GSK's current estimates are accurate (i.e. flu like uptake), then those are underestimates
Let's see how it unfolds in next 2-3 years
Analysts aren't too bright overall (at least in biotech ) IMO, but if JNJ dropped out bc of market considerations vs lack of compeititive profile for their vaccine it would mean more