Tuesday, March 28, 2023 11:02:39 PM
Hi BW, and all.
I'll share a few thoughts, but that's just me, not investment advice.
For any short to mid-term time frame, for my investment, I consider iQSTEL based on its reported revenue generating business in telecom alone. If EV, Fintech, IoT, etc., revenue streams are reported later, or even soon that's great, but for the most part its not a factor for me.
Per the sources listed below a typical price to sales ratio for telecom is 1.01 to 1.62. On that basis iQSTEL could be trading at $.62 to $.89. That is based on current share count and last years projected sales of $90 million, which we were already told was surpassed. Even if Apollo were to execute the full option amounts the share price could still be around $.55 to $.81. And if that happens iQSTEL receives a substantial further cash infusion.
https://csimarket.com/Industry/industry_valuation_ttm.php?ps&ind=905
https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
It's fair, I think, to question the company's worthiness for an industry average ratio. Last years margins were razor thin early on, but margins increased each of the last 4 reported quarters. If they can maintain the third quarter margin of 5.99% that would greatly boost its "worthiness" for an average ratio in my mind. If they continue to improve I will be more impressed. Of course a setback can occur, but if the long term trend remains up then that carries a lot of weight for me. Keep in mind that as revenues increase each little % of margin gains can add greatly to the bottom line.
In short, the company may still need to prove this to the market, but the current trend of reported data is pointing in the right direction. From there you could talk about the extra value of the company from new business divisions. I hope they can demonstrate that, but its been pretty elusive to this point. I have my own current value in my mind, and its something that has not changed much lately, but it can change greatly as the company evolves.
They seemed to have stopped teasing new developments so much. Maybe that's what some investors asked them to do? An investor can make their own choices on whether to assign any perceived value for new divisions or not. Likely they don't even know if any, all, or none will pan out. Maybe some won't, and that's ok, especially if at least some do.
Perhaps like others, I hope they do have a big hit in IoT, EV, or Fintech soon, but maybe they will or won't. I'm not too concerned about those things taking longer than they seemed to think. For example, they first thought some of last years acquisitions would close a quarter or so earlier than it did. But Whisl and Smartbiz did happen in time. Maybe some good news will come later. (sooner would be nice too).
It sure seems like the BASF deal has been on the burner for a long while, but you know, its the largest chemical company in the world. They are the customer, and as far as we know its still in testing. They hold the cards. Hopefully we get a deal, but if it happens it will be on BASF's timeframe, not ours. And maybe even some other company or companies sign up before or instead of BASF, you never know.
I have to include a few thoughts about this Metaverse news. I think its important to look at the big picture here, and that is that iQSTEL is a holding company, and that it's roots all branch of the core telecom business. As a holding company, they look to add businesses that fit into their plan for success, and those that compliment what they already do. Obviously they see this new opportunity as a large potential contributor. It's not being absorbed into another division, it is planned to be another company in its growing portfolio of companies.
iQSTEL could just be any other telecom company. They could sell SMS and voice services, and simply try to grow from acquiring other smaller carriers. It might be a good plan, but would you be so interested as an investment? Maybe you would, but I like iQSTEL because they are trying their best to become a part of a wide range of possible and proven new advances in telecom services, and looking for the synergies. It's easy for some to call them out for trying to aim too high, but where do the biggest successes start from?
Sure some of the biggest companies like Facebook and Disney are pulling back their Metaverse ideas, but maybe that's actually a positive for smaller players. These smaller telecoms are there because they provide services to the large and medium carriers. Services that those larger carriers don't wish to keep in house.
Maybe iQSTEL is on the right track in thinking Metaverse does become an additional telecom service such as like voice and SMS are services, and are provided by companies like iQSTEL. Also, the one point that may be most overlooked by investors is that iQSTEL sees a huge opportunity in offering their Metaverse product as a "white label" product, thus allowing carriers and other companies to essentially provide a Metaverse product as labeled in their name as their own respective service, and that will appear to their customers as their own, although it actually begins through iQSTEL.
If the GOTMY product is good, maybe they just needed someone in the biz to provide it along with other services, and apparently iQSTEL believes that this is what iQSTEL brings to the table. Is that the right approach for Metaverse going forward? Who knows, but maybe it would be pretty nice for iQSTEL investors if the company has a good vision here. If not, well maybe its a good try, or maybe they can pivot.
On the issue of alleged naked shorting, I don't fault the company for looking into its options. I would say that if their margins are holding or getting better then it will seem harder and harder to understand why industry average ratios would not be achieved, if that's the case, and that should mean corresponding higher share prices with the expected variables. I also like the implied public notice that the company firmly believes that its stock has more value than the market is currently providing.
My biggest concern with actually hiring professionals to combat any such activity, if found, is whether the associated cost could derail our chances at reporting profits. I'm sure the company is acutely aware of the issue and will carefully weigh the pros and cons of each potential course of action.
I'm still long. I like the trends and I still see a company growing and improving in many metrics. You can bet I will study the upcoming 10-K, and the next 10-Q very well to see how they are doing. Again, I don't always expect improvement on each and every number exactly, but the longer trends are all important. It's a marathon, not a race.
Today's share price is what the market supports today. While some key trends have improved the share price has drifted lower. Maybe the market doesn't believe the company can hold its recent margin gains. Maybe a feared down tick on margins is already priced in, and if so, some may say that the severity is more than is warranted. Maybe the market is right to have concerns, maybe its wrong. We will get numbers soon, and more numbers in May. Each report tells one more piece of the story. Thus far, what trend do you see over time?
What we do know is iQSTEL is valued in the market at only a little over a quarter of the average of its peers. I would call that near the bottom of the lot. Maybe not a great place to be overall, but maybe a good place to be in for consideration of downside potential vs upside potential, especially considering the current positive margin trend, I think. Everyone just needs to play it as they see it, and choose directions they are most comfortable with, as they see it in their own ways.
The charts below don't provide any predictions, but the first chart shows the double bottom that occurred before the run up to $2.00 about a couple of years ago. The bottom chart shows where we are now, and could possibly show another double bottom in progress, if that ends up being what happens.
I'll share a few thoughts, but that's just me, not investment advice.
For any short to mid-term time frame, for my investment, I consider iQSTEL based on its reported revenue generating business in telecom alone. If EV, Fintech, IoT, etc., revenue streams are reported later, or even soon that's great, but for the most part its not a factor for me.
Per the sources listed below a typical price to sales ratio for telecom is 1.01 to 1.62. On that basis iQSTEL could be trading at $.62 to $.89. That is based on current share count and last years projected sales of $90 million, which we were already told was surpassed. Even if Apollo were to execute the full option amounts the share price could still be around $.55 to $.81. And if that happens iQSTEL receives a substantial further cash infusion.
https://csimarket.com/Industry/industry_valuation_ttm.php?ps&ind=905
https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html
It's fair, I think, to question the company's worthiness for an industry average ratio. Last years margins were razor thin early on, but margins increased each of the last 4 reported quarters. If they can maintain the third quarter margin of 5.99% that would greatly boost its "worthiness" for an average ratio in my mind. If they continue to improve I will be more impressed. Of course a setback can occur, but if the long term trend remains up then that carries a lot of weight for me. Keep in mind that as revenues increase each little % of margin gains can add greatly to the bottom line.
In short, the company may still need to prove this to the market, but the current trend of reported data is pointing in the right direction. From there you could talk about the extra value of the company from new business divisions. I hope they can demonstrate that, but its been pretty elusive to this point. I have my own current value in my mind, and its something that has not changed much lately, but it can change greatly as the company evolves.
They seemed to have stopped teasing new developments so much. Maybe that's what some investors asked them to do? An investor can make their own choices on whether to assign any perceived value for new divisions or not. Likely they don't even know if any, all, or none will pan out. Maybe some won't, and that's ok, especially if at least some do.
Perhaps like others, I hope they do have a big hit in IoT, EV, or Fintech soon, but maybe they will or won't. I'm not too concerned about those things taking longer than they seemed to think. For example, they first thought some of last years acquisitions would close a quarter or so earlier than it did. But Whisl and Smartbiz did happen in time. Maybe some good news will come later. (sooner would be nice too).
It sure seems like the BASF deal has been on the burner for a long while, but you know, its the largest chemical company in the world. They are the customer, and as far as we know its still in testing. They hold the cards. Hopefully we get a deal, but if it happens it will be on BASF's timeframe, not ours. And maybe even some other company or companies sign up before or instead of BASF, you never know.
I have to include a few thoughts about this Metaverse news. I think its important to look at the big picture here, and that is that iQSTEL is a holding company, and that it's roots all branch of the core telecom business. As a holding company, they look to add businesses that fit into their plan for success, and those that compliment what they already do. Obviously they see this new opportunity as a large potential contributor. It's not being absorbed into another division, it is planned to be another company in its growing portfolio of companies.
iQSTEL could just be any other telecom company. They could sell SMS and voice services, and simply try to grow from acquiring other smaller carriers. It might be a good plan, but would you be so interested as an investment? Maybe you would, but I like iQSTEL because they are trying their best to become a part of a wide range of possible and proven new advances in telecom services, and looking for the synergies. It's easy for some to call them out for trying to aim too high, but where do the biggest successes start from?
Sure some of the biggest companies like Facebook and Disney are pulling back their Metaverse ideas, but maybe that's actually a positive for smaller players. These smaller telecoms are there because they provide services to the large and medium carriers. Services that those larger carriers don't wish to keep in house.
Maybe iQSTEL is on the right track in thinking Metaverse does become an additional telecom service such as like voice and SMS are services, and are provided by companies like iQSTEL. Also, the one point that may be most overlooked by investors is that iQSTEL sees a huge opportunity in offering their Metaverse product as a "white label" product, thus allowing carriers and other companies to essentially provide a Metaverse product as labeled in their name as their own respective service, and that will appear to their customers as their own, although it actually begins through iQSTEL.
If the GOTMY product is good, maybe they just needed someone in the biz to provide it along with other services, and apparently iQSTEL believes that this is what iQSTEL brings to the table. Is that the right approach for Metaverse going forward? Who knows, but maybe it would be pretty nice for iQSTEL investors if the company has a good vision here. If not, well maybe its a good try, or maybe they can pivot.
On the issue of alleged naked shorting, I don't fault the company for looking into its options. I would say that if their margins are holding or getting better then it will seem harder and harder to understand why industry average ratios would not be achieved, if that's the case, and that should mean corresponding higher share prices with the expected variables. I also like the implied public notice that the company firmly believes that its stock has more value than the market is currently providing.
My biggest concern with actually hiring professionals to combat any such activity, if found, is whether the associated cost could derail our chances at reporting profits. I'm sure the company is acutely aware of the issue and will carefully weigh the pros and cons of each potential course of action.
I'm still long. I like the trends and I still see a company growing and improving in many metrics. You can bet I will study the upcoming 10-K, and the next 10-Q very well to see how they are doing. Again, I don't always expect improvement on each and every number exactly, but the longer trends are all important. It's a marathon, not a race.
Today's share price is what the market supports today. While some key trends have improved the share price has drifted lower. Maybe the market doesn't believe the company can hold its recent margin gains. Maybe a feared down tick on margins is already priced in, and if so, some may say that the severity is more than is warranted. Maybe the market is right to have concerns, maybe its wrong. We will get numbers soon, and more numbers in May. Each report tells one more piece of the story. Thus far, what trend do you see over time?
What we do know is iQSTEL is valued in the market at only a little over a quarter of the average of its peers. I would call that near the bottom of the lot. Maybe not a great place to be overall, but maybe a good place to be in for consideration of downside potential vs upside potential, especially considering the current positive margin trend, I think. Everyone just needs to play it as they see it, and choose directions they are most comfortable with, as they see it in their own ways.
The charts below don't provide any predictions, but the first chart shows the double bottom that occurred before the run up to $2.00 about a couple of years ago. The bottom chart shows where we are now, and could possibly show another double bottom in progress, if that ends up being what happens.
