AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

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Re: I have often said this too and you always don't understand
this - falling prices don't have to mean, that overall ASP
falls. Your well aware, that AMDs X2 sales were only in the
30% region last quarter. Imagine what a spike to 40-50 or even
60% could mean. Do the math - its easy, I'm sure, that you
could do these simple things. Come back with results.

You have your cause and effect backwards. Volumes of dual core parts increase *because* they have dropped in price. Thus, people aren't spending more money to buy a dual core part, they are spending the same money that they would have ordinarily spent on a single core part in the same price range. It's actually very hard to increase the mix enough to make up for the loss in ASPs. Just look at last quarter as an example. Many people claimed that AMD's price cuts would have a positive effect on ASPs because so many more people would find dual core more appealing. It was quite the reverse, actually, and it will be so again this quarter.

Re: Second, be sure, that AMD runs both FABs at the maximum.

Right, and in order to sell out of material, they will lower prices as low as they need to be in order to sell out. This effectively stuffs the channel, bloats OEM inventories, and makes AMD look good in the short term. Of course, it only accelerates the ASP decline, even though AMD celebrates at the end of the quarter by winning a point or two of market share.

Re: whats your ASP assumption for Q1 for AMD?

$70.