Saturday, February 10, 2007 12:35:52 AM
A recent similar example: Access Pharmaceuticals (ACCP)
ACCP's stock price dropped over a year or so from $30+ to $0.5, undergoing a 5:1 reverse stock split along the way, as well as a delisting from AMEX to OTCBB. Its trading volume dropped to almost nothing and stock price bottomed out at $0.8 with almost no real fluctuations. People forgot about it and considered their holdings as complete losses.
However, ACCP continued to progress in their FDA approval process for their lead drug Mugard and a year later (last Dec) it received FDA approval. Mugard has a $1 billion market with no competition and at that point ACCP's market cap was $5 million. ACCP's stock price immediately doubled but then leveled out again around $2. Then about a week ago, an analyst pointed out that any company with an already FDA-approved drug with a $1Billion market should have at least a $200Million market cap. In addition, ACCP is in late clinical stages with a novel nanotechnology drug to fight cancer that has a potential $2.5Billion market. Over the past week, ACCP's stock price went up 300%, peaking at $8 and now leveling off at $7. However, its market cap is still only $25-30 Million, or 1/10 of what it should be (even though it has gone up 1600% since its low in the fall). It will probably take several jumps to reach its appropriate value.
Although Systems Evolution is a much smaller company, its story is similar to ACCP. SEVI's stock price fell, it switched listings, its volume dried up, and its share price has stabilized at a bottom. In addition, just like ACCP, this fall in stock price was not due to any fundamental changes in the company and all fundamental indicators continue to be positive. I suspect that once news starts being released again, SEVI's stock price will rebound in increments, similar to ACCP. For those of you who have followed SEVI since '05, you've already seen the company go through this process once. Even with news and positive outlook, it may take a couple of months to rebound the full 800% to 1 cent that we're expecting, depending on how much attention it gets. But then, nothing is certain with these small companies so watch it carefully.
Take care,
Asklepidaurus
ACCP's stock price dropped over a year or so from $30+ to $0.5, undergoing a 5:1 reverse stock split along the way, as well as a delisting from AMEX to OTCBB. Its trading volume dropped to almost nothing and stock price bottomed out at $0.8 with almost no real fluctuations. People forgot about it and considered their holdings as complete losses.
However, ACCP continued to progress in their FDA approval process for their lead drug Mugard and a year later (last Dec) it received FDA approval. Mugard has a $1 billion market with no competition and at that point ACCP's market cap was $5 million. ACCP's stock price immediately doubled but then leveled out again around $2. Then about a week ago, an analyst pointed out that any company with an already FDA-approved drug with a $1Billion market should have at least a $200Million market cap. In addition, ACCP is in late clinical stages with a novel nanotechnology drug to fight cancer that has a potential $2.5Billion market. Over the past week, ACCP's stock price went up 300%, peaking at $8 and now leveling off at $7. However, its market cap is still only $25-30 Million, or 1/10 of what it should be (even though it has gone up 1600% since its low in the fall). It will probably take several jumps to reach its appropriate value.
Although Systems Evolution is a much smaller company, its story is similar to ACCP. SEVI's stock price fell, it switched listings, its volume dried up, and its share price has stabilized at a bottom. In addition, just like ACCP, this fall in stock price was not due to any fundamental changes in the company and all fundamental indicators continue to be positive. I suspect that once news starts being released again, SEVI's stock price will rebound in increments, similar to ACCP. For those of you who have followed SEVI since '05, you've already seen the company go through this process once. Even with news and positive outlook, it may take a couple of months to rebound the full 800% to 1 cent that we're expecting, depending on how much attention it gets. But then, nothing is certain with these small companies so watch it carefully.
Take care,
Asklepidaurus
