Market Direction and Stock Trends

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»» US Share Market - Beware of Emotions ««
By: Marty Armstrong | June 17, 2022

The US share market has fallen for 6 months from the December high (5 months from the January intraday high) and now we are getting people proclaiming the entire market will collapse because of interest rates. People will typically start forecasting from here EMOTIONALLY calling for the greatest crash in history. This is the time for CAUTION for correction are typically 3 to 5-time units down while Panics are typically 6 units of time. The only thing that is CONSTANT is always human emotions.

June was our target for the first low. It is true, we may not see the final low until the first quarter of 2023. However, our model does NOT suggest we are looking at every month making a new low until then. Ideally, this wee was our target and it should produce perhaps the lowest weekly closing or intraday low. Next week is a directional change so even a new low that is marginally beneath this week can still see a bounce. Unfortunately, people who forecast or trade emotionally lose everything. Far too often people see it down and then expect the trend to continue and the decline confirms their emotional bias. That is how people sell the low or buy the high. ANYONE who is forecasting emotionally, STAY AWAY FROM!!!!



This was the Array published on the Pro Level Blog generated on May 16th. You can see this was the target week 6/13. There is something still on the horizon here in the July-September time period which may yet disrupt the views of the fundamentalists. The major support in the S&P500 lies down at the 3280 level and only a monthly closing BELOW that level would warn of a serious decline ahead. Meanwhile, a June closing above 3950 will imply that the June low would hold.

If this quarter’s low holds, then we could see a consolidation/bounce into the 4th quarter before a decline into the 1st quarter of 2023. Thereafter, there would be a 3-quarter counter-trend. However, there remains the risk of the final low unfolding in a 3-year correction which would take us into 2024. But we have a Yearly Directional Change in 2024 and the prospects of international war post-2024 would then point to that sling-shot into 2028.

Nevertheless, anyway, we cut this, the volatility models turned up here in 2022 and will not peak until 2024. Volatility should be twice as high in 2023 compared to 2022.

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