Friday, May 13, 2022 3:33:40 PM
'GRADE' Methods applied to meta-analysis of Moderna & Pfizer RCTs, rating Quality of evidence: we strongly recommend 'against use' of COVID mRNA vaccines to reduce mortality, very low-quality evidence
mRNA vaccine trial data submitted to FDA for EUA, combined in meta-analysis to improve precision and power, finding very low certainty evidence against the use of mRNA vaccines
Dr. Paul Alexander
May 7
A recently reported Danish study by Stabell Benn et al. (not yet peer-reviewed) sought to unravel the impact of mRNA and adenoviral vector COVID vaccines on mortality outcomes and found that the mRNA vaccines failed to save lives (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.71). A clear benefit was however seen for the adenoviral vector COVID vaccine (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.70). Their analysis was based on available data and while still pre-print, it has had very serious review by senior global scientists/epidemiologists who have pronounced that the rigor and quality is sufficient. The key is this, that the mRNA vaccines do not confer COVID mortality benefit while the adeno-viral vector vaccine do.
Dr. Martin Kulldorff (prominent vaccine scientist) then commented on this pooled Danish study with a very powerful and crisp commentary, asking a very important question: Have populations been mandated vaccines that fail to save lives and just do not work? I am particularly concerned as a skeptic and contrarian given these mRNA vaccines have now been shown to be ineffective on the Delta and Omicron variants and not properly safe. The Pfizer and Moderna COVID mRNA vaccines do not sterilize the virus (are non-neutralizing as based on the initial Wuhan legacy strain and as such do not match the current variants (spike protein)) in that they do not prevent infection, replication, or transmission. If a vaccine does not cut the chain of transmission in a pandemic of infectious disease, then it cannot achieve herd immunity and is essentially failed.
With this background in place, this analysis by me sought to replicate the Danish finding (conducting the actual meta-analysis) as well as apply GRADE methods to rate the quality of the mortality evidence, culminating in a recommendation for or against the use of the mRNA vaccine in reducing mortality. I also include a rudimentary background on GRADE and apply what can be called ‘GRADE lite’. I simply wished to assess what a GRADE type application to the existing trial data (limited as it may be and of poor methodological quality) would look like since the folk in the EBM world will not apply their expertise to the current body of evidence.
The findings as you see below, cuts against their (medical community, academic scientists, EBMers, CDC, NIH etc.) narrative for two years and certainly on the vaccines. I have learnt that the medical/clinician and academic research community actually practices ‘do not bite the hand that feeds you’ very, very well. They are experts at it. The ‘hand’ is the research grants hand, salaries, career positions etc. To advance their agenda, the key is their agenda, and it is led by the CDC (and the NIH/NIAID), who in the US functions as a political arm of government.
The CDC worked under the Trump administration to undermine him, while works under the Biden administration to support him. They use the MMWR reports to hurt an administration as they wish to and do it by producing bogus incomplete reports with only some of the data and with biased unclear misleading conclusions. They mislead the public and whom within the government they wish to mislead. The data they withheld is not only the 18-49 years old triple booster vaccine data (this is what we have come to know of, there is major more swept under the rug), they are withholding major data and have been doing this all along and IMO it is a real crime. They must be held to account. The reticence by the FDA to make the data available to the public for 55 to 75 years was shocking and showed that there is serious information there that shows much wrong they did. The FDA, CDC, NIH, Pfizer, Moderna and all of their leaders like Bourla and Bancel etc. must be at some point accountable. It must be investigated.
The rest of the article: https://palexander.substack.com/p/grade-methods-applied-to-meta-analysis?s=r
mRNA vaccine trial data submitted to FDA for EUA, combined in meta-analysis to improve precision and power, finding very low certainty evidence against the use of mRNA vaccines
Dr. Paul Alexander
May 7
A recently reported Danish study by Stabell Benn et al. (not yet peer-reviewed) sought to unravel the impact of mRNA and adenoviral vector COVID vaccines on mortality outcomes and found that the mRNA vaccines failed to save lives (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.71). A clear benefit was however seen for the adenoviral vector COVID vaccine (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.70). Their analysis was based on available data and while still pre-print, it has had very serious review by senior global scientists/epidemiologists who have pronounced that the rigor and quality is sufficient. The key is this, that the mRNA vaccines do not confer COVID mortality benefit while the adeno-viral vector vaccine do.
Dr. Martin Kulldorff (prominent vaccine scientist) then commented on this pooled Danish study with a very powerful and crisp commentary, asking a very important question: Have populations been mandated vaccines that fail to save lives and just do not work? I am particularly concerned as a skeptic and contrarian given these mRNA vaccines have now been shown to be ineffective on the Delta and Omicron variants and not properly safe. The Pfizer and Moderna COVID mRNA vaccines do not sterilize the virus (are non-neutralizing as based on the initial Wuhan legacy strain and as such do not match the current variants (spike protein)) in that they do not prevent infection, replication, or transmission. If a vaccine does not cut the chain of transmission in a pandemic of infectious disease, then it cannot achieve herd immunity and is essentially failed.
With this background in place, this analysis by me sought to replicate the Danish finding (conducting the actual meta-analysis) as well as apply GRADE methods to rate the quality of the mortality evidence, culminating in a recommendation for or against the use of the mRNA vaccine in reducing mortality. I also include a rudimentary background on GRADE and apply what can be called ‘GRADE lite’. I simply wished to assess what a GRADE type application to the existing trial data (limited as it may be and of poor methodological quality) would look like since the folk in the EBM world will not apply their expertise to the current body of evidence.
The findings as you see below, cuts against their (medical community, academic scientists, EBMers, CDC, NIH etc.) narrative for two years and certainly on the vaccines. I have learnt that the medical/clinician and academic research community actually practices ‘do not bite the hand that feeds you’ very, very well. They are experts at it. The ‘hand’ is the research grants hand, salaries, career positions etc. To advance their agenda, the key is their agenda, and it is led by the CDC (and the NIH/NIAID), who in the US functions as a political arm of government.
The CDC worked under the Trump administration to undermine him, while works under the Biden administration to support him. They use the MMWR reports to hurt an administration as they wish to and do it by producing bogus incomplete reports with only some of the data and with biased unclear misleading conclusions. They mislead the public and whom within the government they wish to mislead. The data they withheld is not only the 18-49 years old triple booster vaccine data (this is what we have come to know of, there is major more swept under the rug), they are withholding major data and have been doing this all along and IMO it is a real crime. They must be held to account. The reticence by the FDA to make the data available to the public for 55 to 75 years was shocking and showed that there is serious information there that shows much wrong they did. The FDA, CDC, NIH, Pfizer, Moderna and all of their leaders like Bourla and Bancel etc. must be at some point accountable. It must be investigated.
The rest of the article: https://palexander.substack.com/p/grade-methods-applied-to-meta-analysis?s=r
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