Biotech Values

[ciotera]

Don't really have a forecast, but I think 4B is aggressive, even if one is generous about the nHCM extension. EU and JP will likely require similar monitoring based on what happened in the trial. BMY priced it at a reasonable level, but the addressable population isn't large, this is a rare disease, esp. once you account for oHCM vs. nHCM and then NYHA Class II/III and going through a couple lines of generic hypertensives first. The numbers are small to begin with and now the REMS is going to cut them down considerably. And there is a very real risk that aficamten will come through with a better safety profile and will not get slapped with the same REMS. So, lots of downside to this forecast.