As of 9/30 there were about 800m shares, but a 1.6m debt (including interest) due to the primary noteholder(s) convertible at .0015. This has been the primary source of dilution.
There is currently 1.325b shares. Minus the 800m before starting converting, and theyve diluted 525m shares. 525*.0015 = $787k.
So there is still approx $800k left on that note. So there will be another 600m shares from it.
That same noteholder also owns 750k warrants (which are convertible at .002). Berge is confident he will accept a buyout on these warrants, but who knows. Worst case, thats another 750m shares of dilution from the warrants.
Then there are the power-up notes; however, much less of them.
Treat this company as if it has 2b-3b shares for your valuation, depending on if they can reach a settlement to avoid the warrants being converted.
Lets meet in the middle at 2.5b. 2.5b*.0018 = 4.5M. This is the real mkt cap when accounting for expected future dilution.
Company should do 10m in 2021 revenue, and 20m in 2022 revenue (Berge says 40m in 2022 revenue but ill believe it when i see it).
The company also has 5m in real assets (backing out goodwill).
If we value at 1x fwd revenues (20M) + assets, a fair valuation is 25M.
4.5x undervalued on my calculations (remember we are treating the mkt cap as if its 4.5M regardless of what otcmarkets says). Approx .008 is where it should be trading at (and yes that factors in anticipated future dilution)....But a few assumptions here (that the company actually hits 20m in revenue, that no additional notes come, not all of the warrants are converted...)
Youll have to be patient, as we wont really be able to run hard until the note is done. Which is why I was actually disappointed there wasnt more dilution on yesterdays update. I was hoping to see us at about 1.6b shares as it means we would have eaten through more of the note.
When the note is done (assuming no new large notes) we can absolutely run past .008, as that has no froth baked in and when OTC plays start getting momentum, froth comes in upping the share price.
Assuming Berge delivers on the revenue numbers and no new big notes, and buys out at least some of the warrantss, we should be able to hit .015 within 18 months.
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