CAPC still working on absorbing last year's dilution.
Only about 1/3 of the Littlebanc investor shares have hit the float so far.
Last year's swan dive to .411 was mainly driven by tax loss selling, though. Only a couple hundred thousand shares out of millions sold came from Littlebanc investors at the end of 2021. Most of their 700+K shares were used to cover the short hedges they entered in April and during the summer.
I think we'll have another tax loss event at the end of this year, going lower than .411.
I see CAPC selling more shares this year, as they'll need more capital to advance their plans (move to Mexico for manufacturing, for example).
CAPC really shot themselves in the foot creating a tech device glued to the back of a bulky, fragile mirror, and setting up manufacturing in Thailand, half a world away.
They did get screwed by the pandemic increasing shipping container costs by 10x, but what really kills them is how few mirrors they can get in a 40 footer. If we believe the pictures of the pallets shipped for CES, 5 double boxed standard mirrors per pallet gives you around 100 mirrors per 40 foot container. At $20,000 per container, that adds ~$200 per mirror.
To see why this matters, consider that Samsung projector I posted about, the Freestyle. They can pack ~5300 of the devices in a 40 foot container. That $20,000 charge amounts to about $4 per product on the $899 device.
They got out of the low margin LED light business in pursuit of the fatter margins of tech.
They have failed to achieve this goal. Margins will still be thin.
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