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Re: Cambreau post# 57231

Wednesday, 12/01/2021 8:19:13 PM

Wednesday, December 01, 2021 8:19:13 PM

Post# of 96369
VXIT "Tracking Spread of COVID-19 with Air Travel Data!!"

Prototype Model Visualizes Risk Associated with Air Travel Routes

The COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization (CAT-V) tool combines case data from Johns Hopkins University with detailed air travel data from the International Air Transport Association. Together, these data sets make it possible to visualize how coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections and commercial air travel have interacted to export infection risk across the world. Given air travel data and reported infection rates, our tool can also be used to estimate future patterns of COVID-19 transmission. As a result, policymakers, analysts, and others can estimate the impact of travel-related policy interventions, such as restricting air travel from various countries.

The CAT-V tool offers a "heat map" feature and the ability to visualize the risk associated with individual air travel routes. The tool is currently an internal prototype model being refined for possible public release. We will continue to develop and use the CAT-V tool in new ways, and we will continue to release a stream of derivative findings on topics of interest to policymakers. The first set of findings, below, includes an introduction to the CAT-V tool, an estimate of the rate at which reported cases were being exported from China by the end of January 2020, an estimate of the rate at which cases were being underreported in China that same month, an estimate of the greatest source of importation risk to the United States in late February 2020, and the probable origin of cases in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

In September 2020, RAND released two new reports describing the spread of COVID-19 before it was declared a pandemic, and the drivers of COVID-19 risk in Africa**.

https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/cat-v.html
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