Market Direction and Stock Trends

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Germany - DAX Index (^GDAX) - Temp High » Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 13, 2021

This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 1612276. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 16 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 1 day. However, this session barely a new high,Nevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Meanwhile, this market's closing at this time has been the highest during this 16 day rally. This certainly warns that we can still see higher highs ahead from here. It will take a closing below 1606506 to signal a decline is unfolding. This market is trading above our normal trading envelope which resides at 1605848 suggesting it is strong and still in a breakout position. Moreover, this market is quite strong for now trading above all 8 technical support levels. Additionally, this market is very strong while our projected overhead resistance stands at 1614563 and 1615909.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during August. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in DAX Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Mar. 14, 2022. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The DAX Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2021. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the DAX Index Cash, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 1606873.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 8th at 1612276, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 4th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1612276 to 1598590. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 1612276. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 1617900 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 1486137 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

A closing above last year's high of 1390311 will warn of perhaps new highs into next year. A closing below that number would warn that this year could be just a temporary high.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1503240 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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