Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[dewophile]

"IDIX has gotta be lowballing with the $20M annual guidance for Tyzeka/Sebivo"

I hope as much as the rest of you that is the case. but the baraclude experience seems to indicate uptake is slow and then picks up steam over time. I always assumed it had to do with the chronic nature of hep B therapy - specifically pts already on therapy will stay on that drug irrespective of availability of a newer more potent agent out there until there is viral breakthrough (which happens rather often but not that often). so newly diagnosed pts may start a new agent, especially now that one is available that is competitively priced and palatable to third party reimbursers;), but the largest pool of existing hep B pts on therapy will stay on older treatment until mandated by their condition..and often when they start the new agent the older therapy may be continued in combination, which is why older drugs like lamivudine have really not declined much..over time newer agents will garner the lions share of the market, but it may just take more time (and the recent momentum of baraclude sales is consistent with this as well)
that is purely speculation on my part..i certainly hope i am wrong and the baraclude experience is not translatable and has more to do with bmy botching the launch as discussed here previously
ps excuse the typos..i am rushed