I think we need to stop reading to much into the VA election. Since 1980 the only time the Republicans didn't lose both NJ and VA Governor races the first time they won the Presidency was in 1980 when Reagan was POTUS. The means HW Bush, W Bush, and Trump lost both a year after they were elected the first time. Conversely Biden is the only Dem that didn't lose both NJ and VA races. Clinton and Obama both lost VA and NJ the first time they were elected.