Mostly: Classical

[Chary]

I have a bear bias as well.
Looking at the selling and trying to characterize what we are seeing as profit taking in a bull market does not wash with me.
Low volume pull back in an up trend is not what I am
seeing/felling. To me the selling is supply. I know trend is intact ~ but trying to "feel" market action with my heart as well as use my head and read the charts analytically.

11/27 move down on price and volume in the nasdaq. The bars before those "highs" were made on falling volume. Reading that combo as lack of demand leading to supply consequently a trading range.
Retest of the low volume highs produced a gap up narrow ranged bar with volume. To me ~ selling into the highs vs buying and breaking us out higher; so another road sign pointing to supply and not profit taking as the character of the selling. Trading range feeling like distribution.

Then the funky bar on 1/3 that I left lots of money on the table on. Big volume ~ wide price range midrange close. No clue what that was about ~ going to call it a hole in my TA knowledge (an pocket book) and move on. Then 1/10 the Teflon Apple announces the iPhone and everyone thinks apple will save the world with a $500 device. Not sure what the people are going to do that just bought an ipod and a cell device; buy a $500 iphone I guess. Anyway that is my emotional baggage.
BAck to the charts.

The "AAPL" move as it was reflected in the Nasdaq looks like a upthrust of a trading range. Breaking out above and not holding the highs and closing back inside the TR is a read flag to me.
The 1/18 move down and the 1/25 move down have price spread down and volume ~ not profit taking characteristics. Still “feels” like supply to me.

And now, the last 2 days in both the SnP and the NASDAQ ~ how to read that action?
the door was left for the bulls to charge though and take prices up. Supply came in the 25th taking price down ~ in order for us to bounce demand needs to step up. Does not seem like much of a reaction from the Bulls. If this was the bulls reaction to the supply off the top~ 2 sideways days ~ if this is all the bulls have ~ supply will be back.
Lack of a response, in the form of demand, after what looks like supply off the top will lead to supply is my thinking and why I have a bear bias.
Yes Frank ~ you are correct I like to type ~ LOL.




not sure why this bond chart is in here.


Wondering if this was climactic selling in aapl ? Since I have a bear bias ~ maybe I am hoping and not wondering ~ LOL!

Buying took us to a new high with monster price spread and volume followed by another bar with volume ~ the iphone BS ~ please excuse my bias. (o:>*
Could that price action have been distribution? iphone was announced at Mac World in the face of the back dated options crap, btw is that really over?. Who has the last say SEC or Apple's board review?
Did smart and fast money sell to the herd on the iphone announcement?
Since coming off the highs ~ demand has not stepped back in. As the bulls look around at eachother for someone to start buying "this dip" what if nobody starts buying? ~ With volume off the top/"supply in the background" lack of demand will open the door for supply to take the lead.

I own some QIDs and SDSs and cash. no energy and no metals.
Resistance pink line