Absolutely true. The Government only settles if the powers that be perceive their losses will be greater if they do not settle. That would require a monumental loss before SCOTUS, likely with retroactive relief. A highly publicized defeat with a clear majority (or better yet, a unanimous decision voiding the NWS) would also be helpful.
Although it would appear to make a great target for those opposed to Government overreaching, the NWS has never been highly publicized, even by conservative media outlets. Some publicity about it following a decisive rebuke by SCOTUS might spark some interest in the stock, which could prompt the Government to act. That's a stretch, however, as both opposing ideological camps appear dug in.
Short of something that hits the news cycle and perhaps starts up a buying frenzy, I see the same problem keeping the SP deflated: the conservatorship. The GSEs are still in it, and it appears they'll remain in it until forced out, which could happen, but only if the ruling is strong enough. The absence of any real effort to resolve this has made investors wary, which in turn has been holding down the SP. Before being confirmed, Mnuchin said getting the twins out would, "Be a priority" of the administration, which sent the SP to $5. Then nothing happened. MC got appointed Director and everyone spoke of his writings about how he believed the NWS was illegal. Shares hit $3.20, then nothing happened. The En Banc came and went. Shares hit $4.25, then nothing happened. The case was argued before SCOTUS, and there was speculation that the outgoing administration would take action on the way out the door. Shares got to $3.25, then nothing happened. Why aren't we at $3 right now, when the decision is likely either tomorrow or Friday? Each time this stock has risen, the ceiling has gotten lower because the result has been the same.
The key to seeing the huge numbers we've all been waiting for is getting the twins out of conservatorship and re-listed, which this administration and this Congress have shown zero interest in doing. It's all on the courts to force their hands. Come on SCOTUS. GLTA.
