I look towards trends in what the company says, has done or says it will do. I also look at PRs and then try to validate them myself. When you simply look at one it doesn’t provide much, but when you look at them as a group, then you start to see behavioral trends.
There are people here who truly believe the company has a $25-mil contract, and that’s fine to believe it. However, people believe the PRs as fact and have said time and time again “look at the PR, the company has answered your question.” So some examples.
I’ve looked at PRs going back to 2003. One in particular PR’d the web portal and agreement with EMI for music downloads. It is FOUR years later and that never happened. The company PR’d “cracking the code” for digital rights management and proprietary block management, but that was adamantly denied as a falsehood by m-systems, the pioneer of the flash industry saying they did it 10 years prior. Sandisk now owns m-systems for a very good business reason. JP has been claiming patents yet he won’t provide patent numbers. Patent numbers can be provided even if a file is closed to public review. JP has spoke of solutions numerous times in PR yet he has no solutions in the marketplace for Child ID, Insurance, and Medical etc. Yet, other companies are already in the market doing these.
One of the most recent and glaring PR episodes concerns the government contract. PRs on shipping 33,000 units on 01-31-06, 30,000 on 3-22-06. Receiving payments of $4.2 and $4.0 on 4-4-06 and 10-25-06. No further PRs on shipments or fund receipts. That sticks out like a sore thumb. Serious questions come to mind as to why no further PR on events of “material” substance when “immaterial ones” have been PR’d. One may also see how this would significantly affect alleged net income and obviously cash flow considering money he would have spent to ramp up lately.
Granted the company ran a commercial as PR’d possibly to gain investors, name recognition or sales. There is to be an ad out in February for Nascar. That’s all well and good, but in what RETAIL store will people go to purchase a flash drive or keepsafe? Just going to rely on their web site for sales because maybe he’s failed in the retail sector of brick and mortar so far? He's PR'd retail distribution, so where is it?
There are other questionable instances such as secretly increasing A/S without notice. No material update on share buyback. No material update on alleged acquisitions or their status. No material update on other contracts or retail channels. No date posted on the share structure so will assume 12-28-06 and not 01-19-07.
I haven’t sold a share yet since I bought in October and afterwards, and I like others are significantly in the red. But it is somewhat gambling money and I’m prepared to hold out a bit longer. I want to see if JP truly has the “integrity” others claim he has who met him. Honestly, he doesn’t have much with me right now, but he’s being given the chance to redeem himself by many. We’ll see if he does and makes us money, or he’s just one of the usual pink sheet CEO’s. The next week or two will probably tell us, and we’ll either get more happy talk promises and “visionary” statements, silence or some substantiated material fact. But right now there is a trend on my "gutt chart" from reading PRs and reasearching them that doesn't look good.
9 CKYS buys from October 13, 2006 to December 13, 2006. Still bagholding!