Savvy Trades and Investments

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Fair points on AVNW. I was hoping for a little more on the top & bottom lines. Earnings of .49/share were still well ahead of analyst estimates. Revenues came in above estimates as well. Yet the stock is still down sharply.

In hindsight (always easy ha), the risk/reward at $34 wasn't that attractive into earnings. Good call by those on the board who said so. Stock had run huge in recent months and expectations were very high. AVNW needed another blowout quarter to move the stock up even 5-10%. While the slightest disappointment would be punished. Not a favorable setup, especially with so many tech stocks selling off lately even on great numbers.

I think management messed up not putting the guidance in the PR. They explained it better on the CC. Still I was hoping for a raise, and they only reaffirmed. I get that they want to be conservative and would rather have investors focus on the annual results instead of the quarter to quarter swings. If that's the case, maybe they should just do away with guidance. Certainly doesn't seem to be helping them.

On the CC, they don't seem to be getting hurt by component shortages as badly as many others. Which was a relief. They could have mentioned a few more things on the CC. Fiscal Q3 is supposed to be seasonally weaker, but as you say not discussed in the 10K. There didn't appear to be much state government revenue in the quarter. Would have been nice to quantify. As would the bookings...they said book to bill was 'well above' 1 for the quarter & year. Also since AVNW is based in Austin, I'm guessing Texas being shut down for a week in February had a slight negative impact on revenues in the quarter.

Still plenty to like here. Backlog continues to be strong at over $200M. That Q3 restructuring will save them another $1.1M, or add a couple more pennies to quarterly EPS going forward. Management seems to be getting the company as profitable as possible...maybe getting ready for a sale? In the meantime, looks like AVNW will continue to crank out .50-.60 quarters as the healthy cash position builds. Should have another terrific Q4/annual earnings comp on the way. After that, comps are going to be extremely difficult.

Agree with you on the stock being a good trader. Maybe in a new range from the mid $20's to the low $30's. Seems fairly valued there. I'll be adding today as there's likely to be a whoosh down. I don't really want to buy much of anything though if the Nasdaq/Russell weakness continues.