Humanigen Inc (HGENQ)

[cowtown jay]

I think the countdown to launch has already started. We've already announced topline results of our Phase III trial, indicating that we were successful in meeting our primary endpoint. Our Hazard Ratio was 1.54, meaning that we achieved a 54% improvement over standard of care, in reducing the need for patients to be mechanically ventilated. This endpoint is a surrogate for measuring mortality, which predominantly occurs in ventilated patients.

EUA news is expected imminently. Since we achieved a Hazard Ratio far in excess of tocilizumab, or any other drug, there is no reason that I know of as to why the FDA would fail to grant an EUA.

I also believe we could easily see purchase orders for quantities that are 5 - 10+ times higher than the 100k vials to which management has guided, and upon which analysts have based their share price projections.

But, the company, which has been equity funded until now, is projecting $1B in revenue in their 1st year with lenz on the market. How many companies go from no revenue to $1B in revenue that quickly? Management needs to convey a perception that they have guided to revenue projections from this unknown company, for its unknown drug, realistically. Guiding to just $1B in revenue is a stretch for most companies in their product's first year on the market. But I think we could be looking at $100B+.