Savvy Trades and Investments

[wadegarret]

AVNW is not cheap anymore, and in a bad sector

Bad sector the analysts say ? Oh, but there is a shortage- how can you say that ! Well how about this. The Semi index is up more than any other index out there at up 155% in 13 months. It has already priced in a shortage for the next two years, but this shortage will likely only last till the end of this year or at most the beginning of 2022. PE ratios across the board are 75% higher than historic. Also any interest rate increases will hit this sector hard, and I would never bet against no interest rate hikes no matter what the Fed says ! Savvy investors know the market prices things at least six months in advance. Time to sell the SOX index and AVNW too.

Right now analysts have AVNW eps estimates growing going forward for 2022, at around 35% over 2021, and with a PE of 15 going forward. Thing is, if a stock like MU can have only a 10 PE going forward, with 100% eps growth expected going forward, what does it mean ? I say it's all about the sector and interest rates, both which have negative implications going forward.