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Sunday, January 24, 2021 5:07:05 PM
Initiating coverage on the "epitome of Chinese luxury brand[s]" and "domestic leader in EV manufacturing," Nomura analyst Martin Heung argues that even after its steep run-up, Nio stock remains a "buy" and has at least another 30% to run (above Friday's closing share price of $61.95).
So why does Heung like Nio? In one word: Growth. And in another word: Batteries.
On the growth front, Heung observes that EV-friendly infrastructure in China is improving, encouraging more car buyers to make the leap to electrics. "Conservatively," says the analyst, by as early as 2025 16.5% of new cars sold in the Middle Kingdom should be electrics, which implies an overall 31% annual sales growth rate for the industry (and probably a faster growth rate for leaders like Nio). Additionally, at some point electrics should reach critical mass (Heung estimates this will happen at 20% market penetration), which will convince even more car buyers to transition to electrics -- accelerating sales growth further.
Helping Nio to maintain a market-leading position in China will be its "batteries as a service" (BaaS) business model, in which Nio sells cars to customers, leases the batteries to run those cars -- and then offers customers the ability to swap out their current batteries for new, fully-charged batteries as a faster alternative to charging the batteries.
"By improving swapping time to only three minutes" and by placing such battery swapping stations throughout "most parts of the major cities in China, NIO hopes to redefine the whole user experience of owning an EV," says Heung. Swappable batteries, notes the analyst, helps to eliminate customers' range anxiety at the same time as it reduces wait times at charging stations, improving the customer experience in two different ways. Additionally, when arguably the most expensive and most important part of an electric car -- the battery -- is removed from the equation, customers will no longer need to worry about whether an aged car battery might reduce the resale value of their cars years down the road, removing yet another impediment to making a sale.
In this way, Nio's BaaS strategy also helps to differentiate Nio's offerings, and builds a moat around the business. Widening and deepening that moat even further (to steal a phrase from Warren Buffett), Nio is encouraging customers to sign up for long-term, five-year battery leases in exchange for a lower cost per year -- essentially locking customers into its ecosystem for the lease term.
All of the above, says Heung, positions Nio to become "the dominant power in China," in electric vehicles, at a time when EV adoption is surging, says the analyst. Even valuing the stock at a 25% discount to the prices investors are paying for its highest profile US rival, Tesla (on a price-to-sales basis), Heung feels these factors justify placing an $80.30 price target on Nio stock.
So, that’s Nomura's view. Let’s have a look at what the rest of the Street has in mind for NIO shares. Based on 8 Buys and 6 Holds, the analyst consensus is a Moderate Buy. However, going by the $59.40 average price target, shares are anticipated to be changing hands at a 4% discount. (See NIO stock analysis on TipRanks
Recent NIO News
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/24/2024 10:14:54 AM
- NIO to Hold Annual General Meeting on June 25, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/24/2024 09:30:44 AM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/22/2024 10:06:28 AM
- NIO Inc. to Report Unaudited First Quarter 2024 Financial Results on Thursday, June 6, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/22/2024 09:30:11 AM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/21/2024 08:28:12 PM
- Form F-3ASR - Automatic shelf registration statement of securities of well-known seasoned issuers • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/21/2024 08:02:10 PM
- Chubb Stock Soars 9% with Berkshire Acquisition, AST SpaceMobile jumps 37% on AT&T deal, and More News • IH Market News • 05/16/2024 11:27:07 AM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/16/2024 10:07:01 AM
- Arm Sets 2025 Target for AI Chip Development, Amazon and Microsoft Commit Billions to French Investments, and More • IH Market News • 05/13/2024 11:16:03 AM
- Tesla’s April Sales Down 18% in China, Amazon’s Multi-Billion Dollar Cloud Expansion in Singapore, and More News • IH Market News • 05/07/2024 11:44:00 AM
- NIO Inc. Provides April 2024 Delivery Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/01/2024 09:30:24 AM
- Samsung Surpasses Apple in Q1 Smartphone Market; Salesforce in Talks to Acquire Informatica, and More News • IH Market News • 04/15/2024 11:06:48 AM
- NIO Inc. Files Its 2023 Annual Report on Form 20-F • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/09/2024 10:11:21 AM
- NIO Inc. Provides March and First Quarter 2024 Delivery Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/01/2024 09:30:26 AM
- NIO Inc. Prudently Adjusts First Quarter 2024 Delivery Outlook • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/27/2024 09:30:20 AM
- Fisker’s Shares Take a Hit Amid Speculation of Bankruptcy, Altria Divests from AB InBev to Fund Stock Repurchase Initiative • IH Market News • 03/14/2024 11:39:32 AM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/05/2024 12:39:45 PM
- U.S. Futures Dip, Crude Oil Fluctuates • IH Market News • 03/05/2024 11:05:54 AM
- NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/05/2024 10:00:21 AM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 11:06:42 AM
- NIO Inc. Provides February 2024 Delivery Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/01/2024 09:30:55 AM
- Form SC 13D/A - General statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/28/2024 03:48:47 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/26/2024 02:23:07 PM
- NIO Entered Into Technology License Agreement with Forseven Limited • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/26/2024 10:00:59 AM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/22/2024 12:12:45 PM
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