Saturday, January 23, 2021 2:39:57 PM
Digging deep into the guts of this very same study, I will prove Monday 4 points for Cytodyn's trial:
(1) ICUs contain less than 10% of the milder patients (called "severe" by Cytodyn), not 33% as you suggest
(2) To the contrary, 55 to 60% of their patients are way too critical and excluded from Cytodyn's study (excluded by their criteria, too much risk) - this proves quantitatively a point I have been making many times that this trial doesn't address high-risk patients, no hope there
(3) The consequence is that ICU mortality is way above what Cytodyn could expect for trial placebo patients - adjusting for these 2 differences above, this study proves that the mortality of Cytodyn's "critical" patients shall be around 32% only
(4) Keeping your pessimistic severe/critical ratio assumptions, this will result in a placebo mortality of 25% - or 21% if we split 50/50% the severe/criticals - or 17% if we align on the average of the mixes reported by all worldwide research papers
Meaning, once again and whatever the mix chosen, that Leronlimab, with 2/3rd of patients in a trial with 22% combined mortality, performs not differently than placebo. Like saline.
Exactly in line with the previous Cytodyn COVID trial which got absolutely no approval in the US nor in any country worldwide. We had predicted there again based on statistics that it would be a total failure despite the huge positive press releases by the company...Numbers don't lie and must be used to weight every medical theory, even the most attractive ones.
Stay tuned, this explains why the CEO is not disclosing to shareholders the trial mortality information that is sitting on his desk.
Recent CYDY News
- Form EFFECT - Notice of Effectiveness • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/13/2024 04:15:06 AM
- Form POS AM - Post-Effective amendments for registration statement • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/07/2024 12:44:56 AM
- Form S-1 - General form for registration of securities under the Securities Act of 1933 • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/07/2024 12:42:22 AM
- Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/15/2024 09:21:30 PM
- Form SC TO-I/A - Tender offer statement by Issuer: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/22/2024 01:00:58 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:17:48 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:16:28 PM
- Form SC TO-I/A - Tender offer statement by Issuer: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 09:16:25 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/09/2024 12:46:25 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/03/2024 09:15:10 PM
- Form SC TO-I - Tender offer statement by Issuer • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/03/2024 09:10:56 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 09:17:30 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 09:16:24 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 09:09:58 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/09/2024 02:30:20 AM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/01/2024 10:16:47 PM
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- Form 3 - Initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/16/2024 02:00:24 AM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/12/2024 10:31:57 PM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/29/2024 10:22:17 PM
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