Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[kgromax]

This is a theoretical rationale that is not specific to Cytodyn and applicable to all models and the bayesian approach in general as well as a large chunk of the frequentist approach. Yet this doesnt prevent Google, oil majors, Criteo, Facebook and many other firms to use these extensively. And biotech firms and the FDA for many, many trials. Dismissing this model based on a general rationale is not sufficientt.

The proper solution to manage this risk is
(1) to make minimal assumptions in the model (Ockham razor) and chose common sense assumptions (real world physics). This was the case here.
(2) run sensitivity tests regarding the assumptions and verify the conclusions still hold with alternatives. This was the case.

This Cytodyn trial is facing an uphill battle.