"We estimate annual revenues per patient of $382,000 per year of treatment in the United States and half this level or $191,000 in the rest of the world.45 Penetration into the Fabry population is expected to initially be 1.5% in 2021 reflecting a partial year of sales. In year two, we anticipate this will increase to 5% and rise to 12% of the market by the sixth year of commercialization. We anticipate a slow move into other markets, beginning the submission of a marketing authorization application (MAA) in the EU next year. Assuming one year to obtain approval and one year to negotiate pricing, we model European sales starting in 2023. Work to obtain approval in other regions will advance in parallel with EU efforts. Penetration into the ex-US Fabry population is modelled at 1.5% in year one rising to 6% by year five. If PRX-102 is able to demonstrate superiority to Fabrazyme and successfully communicate this to providers, higher penetration estimates are justified."
The expected price for PRX-102 is impressive (~$45000 more than the Fabrazyme tag price), but the market penetration rate is not. Of course, it is very important to show superiority to Fabrazyme and Replagal. Then the market share for PRX-102 will be significantly higher IMO.
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