Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

I’m not happy with JP’s using the launch of Baraclude as a template because it is widely believed (including by JP himself) that BMY botched the U.S. launch.

>I always thought your initial tyzeka expectations were high (which i hinted at when you made the initial survey here).<

I may have been too optimistic with my early goals for Tyzeka but I was hoping that NVS could do a better marketing job than BMY. This notion was reinforced when JP revealed that IDIX had hired a number of experienced HBV reps from the competition. One has to ask: why were these reps highly motivated to join the Tyzeka team from the get-go if the early expectations are so modest?

>…because of the nature of HBV therapy…its fairly chronic, and patients already on one agent are for the most part going to stay on that agent until a viral breakthrough regardless of other superior agents out there.<

That’s a valid point but, still, it’s a matter of degree. Until today, it seemed reasonable to expect that Tyzeka could cut more deeply into Hepsera’s share during the first year.

>I never expected phase III to be initiated sooner than today's guidance.<

This surprises me because, more often than not, guidance of 2H means 4Q. (If a company expects a positive event to occur in 3Q, they generally say 3Q rather than 2H.) Notwithstanding the fact that the results of the drug-interaction study will be vetted by the FDA before phase-3 is finalized, the guidance of 2H07 suggests that this program is progressing with less expedition than I would have liked to see. As a result, HCV polymerase inhibitors from other companies are not far behind.

All told, I’m glad that you view today’s disclosures more favorably than I do. Perhaps I’m being unduly critical but this is the first time I’m getting some distinctly bad vibes about the company’s prospects. Regards, Dew